Who would dare challenge President Masisi? In the run up to 2024 elections
Many believe that if not resolved, the current political polarity within the Botswana Democratic Party ( BDP) may lead to the sitting President, Dr. Mokgweetsi Masisi being challenged in the Presidential primary elections in the run- up to the 2024 general election.
Internal political contestations are no doubt, the bedrock of internal democracy. Should the President be challenged, it will be the first time in this country that a sitting President had to fight for his spot in the ballot.
In 2019, then cabinet Minister, Pelonomi Venson- Moitoi, attempted a Presidential run against President Dr. Masisi. Other than being called names by the President’s supporters, Dr. Masisi fired her from cabinet. As if that was not enough, Venson- Moitoi was pressurised to withdraw from the race at the last minute.
The unprecedented move divided opinion both within the party and the nation at large. The BDP Women’s Wing denounced, disowned and vilified Venson- Moitoi. The pervasive stereotype that women cannot lead did not help matters.
It is believed that the President’s rather intolerant behaviour towards Moitoi emanated from the fact that he viewed the challenge as an attack on him personally since no other sitting President had ever been challenged by a fellow party activist.
Some suggested that the President is gender- biased. It is worth noting that, before Venson- Moitoi showed interest in occupying the highest office in the land, Masisi had always projected himself as a true democrat who is not only looking forward to a contest but is not afraid of one.
He often publicly challenged those wishing to contest him to come forth. At a party leadership retreat in 2019, the President even reportedly said, “Ke baba difeise,” meaning that he was itching for a ‘ fight.’
When, however the opportunity for a ‘ fight’ came about and Venson- Moitoi threw her hat in the ring, the President took exception and, like the typical hard- core African dictator of yesteryear, delivered a devastating assault on democracy by kicking Venson- Moitoi out of cabinet for the reason that she had dared challenge him.
‘’ Venson- Moitoi attempted to challenge President Masisi but the assault on her was unimaginable. Dr. Masisi had just assumed the highest office in the land and now imbued with State power and executive privileges,” says Adam Mfundisi of the University of Botswana.
His view is that the attack on Venson- Moitoi came about because the President, who had had a fallout with his predecessor, Dr. Ian Khama, viewed Venson- Moitoi as a Khama proxy who had, at best, been deployed to destabilise his government.
According to Mfundisi, VensonMoitoi was caught in a crossfire as she was thought to be pursuing the former president’s agenda to undermine the incumbent’s administration.
Under the circumstances, the President, according to the UB political analyst, deployed both the deep state and
BDP structures such as the Women’s Wing to denigrate Venson- Moitoi with the objective of degrading her in the public eye.
Viewing the challenge as a motion of no confidence on him, the President developed a siege mentality after convincing himself that he was being challenged because he is considered weak and unfit to carry out the duties of the highest office in the land.
For starters, the political environment pre- 2019 general elections was favourable to President Dr. Masisi as his political rhetoric and promises resonated well with the diehards in the BDP and eventually with some sections of the population.
Now two years after the elections where the people gave Masisi the mandate at the 2019 general election, the expectations for delivery on the pre- election pledges are high and, going forward, the people are not likely to listen to what they consider excuses for failure to deliver.
Over and above that, “Lack of strategic leadership has become visible and the country’s socio- economic and political situations are getting worse. Covid- 19 pandemic has exposed Dr. Masisi’s inability to lead the country to prosperity.
“Ethics and accountability are compromised. The surge in corruption and maladministration are rampant. Poverty, unemployment, inequality, crime and lack of moral fabric in society abound. “Lack of ethical and accountability leadership has led to poor service delivery. All these have led to erosion of public trust and confidence in government,” added Mfundisi, who noted that since assuming power three years ago, the president has progressively weakened.
“Post- 2019 general election the President has become a weakling because of the missteps and errors of judgment in the management of the country. He is exposed more than ever. The Masisi leadership has been found wanting in many areas.
“He is, with impunity, doing the very same things he has accused Dr. Khama of. He has shown dictatorial tendencies. Conflict of interest and corruption have become government’s business with no political leadership to stop it.
“Secrecy has become the cornerstone of the Masisi administration which came into office to promote ethics and accountability management,” added the UB academic.
In Mfundisi’s view, secrecy, which he says defines the Masisi administration, always breeds corruption, and the country has witnessed an unprecedented spike in corruptive practices since Dr. Masisi assumed office.
Scandals and serious misdemeanours have been levelled against his regime he says adding that, the acquisition of Banyana Farms by Dr. Masisi, Covid- 19 corruption cases, acquisition of Tautona Lodge in Ghanzi, acquisition of Okavango Delta land for Presidential suite, and many other omissions or commissions have dented MEK’s credentials and ratings.
The UB political science lecturer says that political leadership during the Covid- 19 pandemic and the introduction of the State Of Emergency ( SOE) as a vehicle to control, and mitigate the spread and effect of the pandemic have
been found.
“SOE was practically used to enrich BDP functionaries and the associates of the President. Covid- 19 spread, hospitalisation rose, and high mortality occurred in society, and polity as corruption rose to unprecedented levels,” he said, adding that in the midst of all these problems, the general population has lost confidence and trust on the presidency.
The analyst added that the government and the President did not take responsibility for the devastating impact of Covid- 19 on the people because of their lack of strategic vision in containing, controlling, and mitigating the impact of the pandemic.
‘’ Dr. Masisi is beset with many intractable problems which he seems not to comprehend and proffer solutions for. The BDP and government are in shambles due to lack of strategic leadership,” notes the UB academic.
The ruling party is not at peace with itself. In an attempt to regain control in the party, Dr. Masisi has had to take action against certain elements in the party. This may lead to him being targeted for ouster at the BDP congress ahead of the 2024 general election.
According to Mfundisi however, it should be acknowledged that, as the President of the BDP and government, Dr. Masisi has enormous powers to deflect any challenge from within the BDP and without.
“The Constitution of Botswana invests intensive and extensive powers in the presidency. The incumbency factor positions the President to ward off any challenger for presidency. Institutional presidency provides the President with considerable abilities to command the attention of the Botswana population.
“His decline in public support can be mitigated by incumbency advantage in terms of tenure, selection, and quality of the challenger,” posits Mfundisi, adding that the President can use state resources, institutions, processes, and personnel to launch his bid for political office. “What the President, BDP, and State organs did to Venson- Moitoi could be repeated towards 2024 primary elections in the BDP,” says the analyst. The Machiavellian strategies the BDP employed in the 2019 general election will be used to deal with any internal political challenge, adds the political scientist.
He believes that the BDP has been emboldened by its success in the 2019 general election. There is a school of thought which says that, considering the pitiful state of affairs in the country now, the President may not only be challenged in the run- up to the 2024 general election in the party presidential primary elections but may face a much stronger and better prepared competitor.
According to this theory, instead of chickening out due to the abuse visited on Mma V by the BDP and its leadership, BDP members may feel emboldened and determined to raise a challenger to President Dr. Masisi come 2024.
The other school of thought is that, by humiliating Mma V, President Dr. Masisi may have successfully repressed dissent in the party for the foreseeable future, a prospect that is anathematic to democracy.
As the ruling party, the BDP should be the foremost defender of democracy and gender equality in the country.