Africa’s food supplies

The two countries are major contributors to global grain supplies. The impact on prices from developments affecting their output cannot be understated.

Some countries on the continent, such as South Africa, benefit from exporting fruit to Russia. In 2020 Russia accounted for 7 percent of South Africa’s citrus exports in value terms. And it accounted for 12 percent of South Africa’s apples and pears exports in the same year – the country’s second largest market.

But from Africa’s perspective, Russia and Ukraine’s agricultural imports from the continent are marginal – averaging only US$ 1,6 billion in the past three years. The dominant products are fruits, tobacco, coffee, and beverages in both countries.

RIPPLE EFFECTS

Every agricultural role- player is keeping an eye on the developments in the Black Sea region.

The impact will be felt in other regions, such as the Middle East and Asia, which also import a substantial volume of grains and oilseeds from Ukraine and Russia.

They too will be directly affected by the disruption in trade.

There is still a lot that’s not known about the geopolitical challenges that lie ahead. But for African countries there are reasons to be worried given their dependency for grains imports.

In the near term, countries are likely to see the impact through a surge in prices, rather than an actual shortage of the commodities. Other wheat exporting countries such as Canada, Australia and the US stand to benefit from any potential near term surge in demand.

Ultimately, the goal should be to deescalate the conflict.

Russia and Ukraine are deeply embedded in the world’s agricultural and food markets.

This is not only through supplies but also through agricultural inputs such as oil and fertiliser.

( The Conversation)