Russian invasion of Ukraine will embolden China’s expansionist ambitions

Ahunger for insatiable conquests, a ghost from the Second World War, has reawakened. That ghost is hounding Europe – but may soon reach Asia and, perhaps, the rest of the world. The spectre may spread fast following the events of 24 February, when Russia launched a full- scale military attack on Ukraine, bombing major cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and Mariupol and moving in across its own borders as well as from Belarus, Crimea and the Black Sea. The strikes followed months of troop build- ups, Russian demands to the United States and NATO, negotiations with the US and European leaders, and US warnings of Russia’s invasion plans. They were closely preceded by Moscow’s recognition of two separatist enclaves in eastern Ukraine as independent. Some in Asia are predicting similar conflicts. They believe that, emboldened by Russian’s invasion of Ukraine, China is ready to move on Hong Kong, Taiwan and Tibet. China – as Russia has done with Luhansk and Donetsk – will claim that it owns these three territories. Taiwan, a nation of 24 million people, is watching the events unfolding in Ukraine with keen interest. China declaring sovereignty over it cannot be far- fetched: recently, China has tried to manage the Taiwan Strait in the South China Sea through invasive military activities which cannot just be described as intimidating but rather as signals to nudge Taiwan into rejoining mainland China. The presence of the People’s Liberation Army, with its bombers, fighter jets and surveillance aircraft as well as warships and aircraft, in the Taiwan Strait and around Taiwan’s mainland are viewed as a strong campaign that will culminate in an armed invasion. Taiwan’s democracy is relatively young. It held its first free legislative elections in 1992, followed by its first presidential elections in 1996. Before that the Kuomintang governed under martial law from 1949 to 1987; political dissent was harshly repressed and Taiwanese who had inhabited the island long before 1945 faced discrimination. But, since the early 90s, it has peacefully transferred power between parties several times. However, since Taiwan elected Tsai Ing- wen as its president in 2016, it has reported thousands of cyber attacks from China, targeting its government agencies. In 2020, Taipei accused four Chinese groups of hacking into at least ten Taiwanese government agencies and 6000 official email accounts since 2018 in a bid to access government data and personal information. In the first few days of Joe Biden’s presidency in the US, Taiwan reported a “large incursion” by Chinese warplanes over the space of two days. This was followed by China flying a huge number of military jets into Taiwan’s air defense zone throughout 2021. This prompted United States Admiral John Aquilino, head of the Pentagon’s Indo- Pacific command, to warn that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan “is much closer to us than most think”.

China has also engaged in disinformation and has increased its control over Taiwan’s media. Elsewhere in the region, Beijing has been alarmed by the Dalai Lama’s calls for independence in Tibet and Hong Kong’s demand for autonomy for its population of 7.5 million. The west has openly backed these calls. Tiny Tibet’s desire for independence has especially irked China, which already occupies half the country after defeating the small Tibetan army. Tibet’s political figures are gagged and activists in exile are criticised by China. The far- larger

Hong Kong, a former British colony, is culturally and economically very different from mainland China. This has led to a great deal of tension, which peaked in 2020 as a controversial “national security law” gave the Chinese Communist Party the power to arrest activists, seize assets, fire government workers, detain newspaper editors and rewrite school curriculums. This sullied relations even further. It remains to be seen whether China’s powerful military, which includes the world’s largest navy by number of ships, will take a leaf out of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s book and invade its troublesome territories. Stephen Tsoroti is a Research Fellow at Afrasid based in Zimbabwe. He is a multi- award winning journalist and has written extensively on gender, labour and climate issues amongst others. Stephen was named journalist of the year by Zimbabwe Biodiversity Award 2000