Kremlin seeks to exploit growing wariness over refugees in Europe

As with energy and food, refugee and migrant flows could be utilised by Russia to weaken Western support for Ukraine and its war effort.

Around the world, conflict and rising living costs have caused great instability. On Europe’s periphery, people from Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Eritrea, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, Syria and Yemen are noted as being particularly vulnerable to forcible displacement due to the circumstances in these countries.

Meanwhile, across the Middle East, which receives a substantial part of its grain from Russia and Ukraine, the effects of the war have also worsened food insecurity and could further increase refugee and migrant flows.

The leader of Italy’s League party, and former deputy prime minister,

Matteo Salvini said on 6 June that food insecurity and economic instability, as a result of the war in Ukraine, could lead to half a billion refugees and migrants heading to Europe. While it is difficult to put an exact number on how many people will do that, growing instability will clearly increase migrant flows from nearby regions.

European countries, and the EU itself, have hastily turned to offshore processing centres outside the continent to resettle migrants, asylum seekers and refugees in the last few years. But the underdevelopment of these systems, as well as the limitations of Frontex, means Europe will again be incapable of stemming a significant increase in flows of migrants, refugees and asylum seekers.

Turkey already hosts the world’s largest population of refugees and asylum seekers and Ankara is not expected to take many more. The world has also seen how Europe was able to absorb millions of Ukrainians relatively quickly and there will be pressure on the EU to also accept non- European migrants and refugees.

Western sanctions and other measures to punish Russia for invading Ukraine have in turn exacerbated the situation being felt in global energy and food markets, while much of the ongoing violence across the Middle East has partly stemmed from the foreign policies of Western countries since the turn of the century.

Since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe has endured rising inflation, growing food and energy costs and an influx of refugees. The effects of the war are amplifying these forces globally and the Kremlin will do all it can to add to the refugee crisis in Europe and pressure the EU to end its support for Ukraine.