Is Monkeypox slowing down?

In July 2022, the Centre for Disease Control ( CDC) in the United States estimated that it took eight days for Monkeypox cases to double nationwide. By mid- August, the doubling rate was estimated to be around 25 days. In medical terms, this is huge progress towards controlling a disease that many feared would go on to ravage the world. Since its confirmed global outbreak in May 2022, monkeypox has caused some deaths,

but the death rate is lower than expected from historical data and scientists are breathing a cautious sigh of relief. Out of more than 57,000 people confirmed to have had monkeypox infections, at least 22 have died, representing a death rate of about 0.04 percent. That’s significantly less than the 1– 3 percent that had been previously reported during outbreaks caused by a similar viral strain in West Africa over the past few decades. As it has been our tragic reality in Africa and other fellow poor continents, it is very much likely that the true death rate is higher than current estimates: poor countries in some parts of the world usually hardly capture all deaths during outbreaks because they have limited resources for testing and surveillance. I do not expect it to be any different with Monkeypox. The numbers could still rise, especially if the virus spreads more extensively among people at high risk of severe disease, such as children, older people, men who have sex with men, and people with severely compromised immune systems.

So far during this current global outbreak, deaths from monkeypox have occurred in at least 10 countries and efforts are underway to understand how the virus contributed to these deaths. Some of the people who died, including one in the United States and one in Mexico, were severely immune- compromised and had serious illnesses other than monkeypox. Two people who died in Spain developed encephalitis ( brain swelling), and had no other known risk factors.

On the basis of previous monkeypox data, these deaths are certainly alarming. Researchers are still trying to determine whether the encephalitis happens( ed) as a result of the virus infecting the brain or because of an excessive immune response that causes brain swelling.

Some countries like the United States have already started vaccinating people at higher risk to try and help them survive Monkeypox infection. That, together with other non- clinical interventions that have been put in place, are being attributed to the slowing down of infections. Most of the countries in the world have not reported even a single case of Monkeypox infection and it is very vital that they do not become complacent or let their guard down only to react when it’s too late. I believe lessons learned from the COVID- 19 outbreak are playing a huge role in getting our health systems ready and prepared to face any upcoming outbreaks. This deserves applause. Good as it sounds that the outbreak isn’t progressing as rapidly as it was initially feared, we still have to ramp up our efforts to respond to it. And there are many, many data questions, clinical care questions, research questions that remain to be answered about this very unusual outbreak of a known virus over decades that is presenting itself very differently.

Have a healthy weekend everyone. One Health. Kenneth T. Photlokwe

MSc Medicine ( Vaccinology) – Wits SANBio Youth Ambassador

Email: photlokwekenneth@ gmail. com Facebook: Kenneth T. Photlokwe Twitter: @ Kenny_ TP