WTO slashes 2023 global trade forecast as recession looms

The World Trade Organization on Wednesday dramatically lowered its global trade forecast for 2023, as Russia’s war in Ukraine and other shocks take their toll on the world economy.

Presenting a revision of their annual trade forecast, WTO economists said they expected the volume of global merchandise trade to grow 3.5 percent this year, which is slightly higher than their expectations in April.

But they forecast it would grow by only one percent in 2023 -dramatically down from their expectations of 3.4- percent growth six months ago.

“The picture for 2023 has darkened considerably,” WTO Director- General Ngozi Okonjo- Iweala told reporters in Geneva.

“Today the global economy faces multi- prong crises. Monetary tightening is weighing on growth across much of the world.”

As for the global economy as a whole, WTO economists stuck with their April forecast of 2.8- percent GDP growth this year, but said growth in 2023 was now expected to be just 2.3 percent -down a full percentage point from the previous forecast.

By way of comparison, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development has maintained its 2022 forecast at three percent, and expects 2.2 percent growth next year.

The International Monetary Fund meanwhile forecasts growth at 3.2 percent this year and 2.9 percent in 2023.