Botswana’s high- income status ambition under threat
Botswana is likely not to achieve a high- income status by the target period, given the current annual average Gross Domestic Product ( GDP) growth of 4.2 percent ( 2022).
This is the grim observation by David Sefawe, the Assistant Commissioner General- Policy Development at the National Planning Commission ( NPC).
The NPC bears the surmountable task of driving Botswana to achieve prosperity for all by 2036 through sustainable economic development among other pillars of the national vision.
Sefawe is however upbeat that the Commission will seriously undertake its mandate of coordinating national development planning and implementation during the remaining 12 years to the year 2036.
As per Vision 2036, Botswana aspires to be a high- income status, an economy that has a Gross National Income ( GNI) per capita of US$ 12,056 or more.
Currently Botswana is an upper middle- income economy with a GNI per capita of US$ 6,430 ( 2022). To be able to achieve a high- income economy status by 2036, Botswana needs to realise an annual GDP growth of six percent.
Botswana has over the years failed to establish a diversified economy away from mineral dependency, particularly diamonds; to develop a private sectorled economy, as well as an export- led economy.
The development of these three are critical in enabling the economy to grow to a high- income status that the country aspires to be by 2036.
Sefawe says the lack of diversification and a government- led economy is not sustainable. He said owing to the small population of Botswana, the country has no choice but to take advantage of the export market.
The Commission has been mandated to promote seamless planning, development and implementation of the long term vision and strategy for Botswana, to develop the country’s National Development Plans ( NDPs), coordinate policy formulation to ensure harmonious synergy and effectiveness and provide advocacy and communication for the national vision and its strategic intervention.
The relatively new Commission is hard at work following the approval of the National Transformation Strategy ( NTS) by cabinet at the end of 2023. The rationale of the NTS, according to Sefawe is to clearly lay out the fundamental changes in approach, economic, productivity and mindset changes.
It also serves as a single reference document for other strategies, as well as embraces the Reset and Reclaim Agenda, Cabinet Strategic Thrusts, ERTP, Smart Bots Strategy and other national priorities.
The NTS is expected to be implemented in two phases, with phase one running from 2023 to 2030 laying a foundation for transformation with the theme, ‘ Innovating for Economic Growth.’ Phase two on the other hand, from 2031 to 2036 will be focused on accelerating transformation.
Sefawe added that the Strategy prioritises selected growth sectors with potential for rapid expansion, innovation, increased demand, high revenue growth, export potential and employment opportunities.
They include; Agriculture, Tourism, Sports and Creative Industry, Manufacturing, Transport and Logistics, as well as mature class of industries including; Mining, Trade and Investment and Financial Services.
Another challenge that Botswana needs to address as identified by the Strategy is the low productivity of its workforce and failure to implement its key policies and projects.
In the past 15 years, there has been a clear indication that the Government’s operational system is not efficient and effective enough to deliver the Government’s priority areas.
The NTS states that a productive and knowledge- based economy requires an environment that enables and promotes innovation.
According to the Global Innovation Index ( 2021) report, Botswana is underperforming, ranking 106th out of 132 economies. At the granular level, Botswana ranks 98th in Innovation Inputs and 109th in Innovation Outputs.
Furthermore, in 2022 the country’s investment in Research and Development ( R& D) was 0.17 percent of GDP, while peers like Malaysia were at 1.08 percent.
This shows that Botswana is underperforming in the number of researches per million inhabitants and R& D expenditure per GDP. R& D is one of the main contributors to a high- income economy.
Assistant Commissioner GeneralNational Planning, Koontse Mokgwathi concurs with Sefawe that attainment of achieving prosperity for all by 2036 will be realised through the implementation of NDPs and other strategic interventions and the current second Transitional National Development Plan ( TNDP) < a href=” tel: 2022/ 23 – 2024”> 2022/ 23 – 2024/ 25, themed, ‘ Towards a High Income Economy: Transformation Now, Prosperity Tomorrow.’
NDP 12 was deferred to 2025/ 26. The TNDP < a h re f = ” t el: 2023/ 24- 2024”> 2023/ 24- 2024/ 25 has a total of 644 Projects for the two- year period at P64 billion, with the first year 2023/ 23 allocated P21.01 billion and 2024/ 25 allocated P29.77 billion, an increase of P8.76 billion from the previous financial year. Mokgwathi explained that the planning system in Botswana has been reformed in order to address among others; the need to ensure that development planning and implementation thereof is sufficiently responsive and adaptive towards achieving the muchneeded structural transformation in the economy to address problems of unemployment, poverty and inequality along with slowing economic growth.
She added that the plan is to align planning with the electoral cycle because currently, there is no clear process by which a newly- elected administration can influence the content of the plan.
“There is a widening misalignment between district and urban planning and national development planning. The national development plans have not adequately infused the principles of spatial planning with a view to articulate the implications of Vision 2036,” she said, adding that implementation of policies, programmes and projects is fragmented and not robust, and this needs to be revamped to bolster accountability.
The deferral of the implementation of NDP 12 to April 2025/ 26 was also ideal to accommodate crucial reforms to the national planning system. The NPC will also engage members of the public from next week in roadshows to solicit their input on the development of NDP 12 and what they would like to see in terms of developments in their areas.