US- Africa trade deal turns 25 next year
e African Growth and Opportunity Act ( AGOA) is a landmark piece of trade legislation enacted by the United States in 2000. Its goal is to promote economic growth, development and poverty reduction in sub- Saharan Africa by providing qualifying countries with duty- free access to the US market for over 6,500 products. By eliminating import tari s and quotas, AGOA aims to stimulate trade, attract foreign investment and foster economic integration between the US and African nations.
AGOA has made strides in boosting exports from eligible African countries to the US. Between 2001 and 2021, the annual value of US imports from AGOA- eligible countries nearly tripled, from US$ 8.15 billion to US$ 21.8 billion. e trade preferences have particularly bene ted sectors like apparel, textiles, agriculture and light manufacturing. However, AGOA’s impact has been uneven across the region. Some countries have used the opportunities more e ectively than others. As AGOA approaches its 25th anniversary next year, policymakers are considering extending it for a further 16 years. I recently conducted a comprehensive review of scholarly articles and policy reports that analyse the impact of AGOA on the economic performance of sub- Saharan Africa. Below are the four key observations.
Some countries have bene ted more than others, Agoa’s bene ts can’t be measured in just one metric. ey reect in various terms for various countries. But available research indicates that the countries that bene ted most from AGOA include South Africa, Kenya, Lesotho, Mauritius, Madagascar, Ethiopia and Ghana.
These nations have used AGOA preferences to substantially increase their exports to the US, particularly in sectors like apparel, textiles and light manufacturing. Kenya, where apparel- dominated exports to the US have grown from US$ 55 million in 2001 to US$ 603 million in 2022, is a shining example of growth in exports. Mauritius exported chocolate and basket- weaving materials. Mali exported buckwheat, travel goods and musical instruments until its 2022 suspension. Mozambique exported sugar, nuts and tobacco. Togo exported wheat, legumes and fruit juices. Lesotho’s success story is equally inspiring. It has had rapid export growth and job creation in its apparel sector, and this has contributed to new manufacturing jobs. ese success stories underscore the potential of AGOA to drive economic growth and job creation. Some countries have not bene ted much. Central and west African countries have not extensively used AGOA’s bene ts. ey have been held back by weakness in infrastructure, governance and global market integration.
Burundi, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, e Gambia, Guinea- Bissau and Mali have seen little export growth and foreign direct investment, or no bene ts. Reason for the uneven bene ts The variation in AGOA’s impact across sub- Saharan Africa is down to several factors. First, countries with better infrastructure, stable governance and conducive business environments are better positioned to attract foreign investment and increase exports. Second, the level of economic diversi cation and export capabilities matters. Countries with more diversi ed export baskets and established manufacturing sectors have managed to make the most of AGOA’s opportunities. ird, national policies and strategies to complement AGOA are essential. Countries that put in place policies to improve productivity, integrate value chains and ease supply- side constraints appear to have had success under AGOA. Cultural ( historical) connections with the US market may have also provided an advantage for some countries, like Kenya and Lesotho. e US Senate is considering extending AGOA for another 16 years. It is vital to consider the lessons learned from the past 25 years.
Diversify the economy and add value: Many countries still rely heavily on primary commodity exports. is leaves them vulnerable to global price movements and limits their economic development prospects. Invest in infrastructure: Transport, energy and communication are critical to enhance competitiveness and attract more foreign direct investment. Publicprivate partnerships and multilateral development nancing could help to ll infrastructure gaps. Promote good governance, political stability and institutional reforms: ese create an enabling environment for businesses and investors. It means strengthening legal frameworks, combating corruption and ensuring the rule of law. Build capacity and develop skills: It should be a priority to enhance human capital and create a skilled workforce that can support the other steps outlined above.
Recognise the diverse economic, political and social contexts in subSaharan Africa: Tailored strategies and targeted assistance could work better for individual countries.
As AGOA approaches its 25th anniversary, the potential extension through 2041 presents a strategic opportunity. The sub- Saharan African countries should re ne and broaden Agoa’s impact to better serve the diverse needs of the region. By tackling the uneven impacts and focusing on sustainable development goals, AGOA can continue to play a part in the region’s economic transformation. e US and bene ciary countries must work together closely to ensure the bene ts are widespread and inclusive.