Opinion and Exit Polls: What you need to know ( Part II) lemma demands global action

is week, we shall look at two other measures that can be taken to ascertain voter opinion – exit and entrance polls. An exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately a er they have exited, or le , the polling stations on Election Day. e results are then released to the nation immediately a er the polls have closed. So, when the Botswana polling stations close at 8pm, exit poll results can then be released.

But as with opinion polls, an exit poll must be carefully planned and executed. e poll is undertaken throughout Election Day. However, there are thousands of polling stations across the country and, for logistical reasons, it may not be possible to conduct an exit poll at all of them. erefore, a few polling stations can be chosen in each constituency. However, such polling stations must reflect differences in voting patterns across the constituency. Such di erences can be obtained from the results of the previous election; for example, nding out which party each ward councillor represented. Since many polling stations may be very busy with long queues of voters, systematic sampling may be used when choosing which voters to interview. For example, every 5th voter may be questioned.

It is important that exit poll results are not released before polling stations close. If they are, this may possibly in uence the nal election result, and even cause some voters to stay away from voting. For example, if the results show that party X is clearly winning, then supporters of party Y may now feel it a waste of time and e ort to show up at a polling station since now their vote may not make any di erence to the nal result. However, in some countries, such as the UK, France and Germany, it is a criminal o ence to release exit poll results before polling stations nally close.

To avoid later arguments and criticism, an exit poll at a polling station can be conducted by a team consisting of persons representing each of the political parties that are participating in the election in that constituency. Hence, in the 2024 general election such a team may be composed of three people representing the Botswana Democratic Party [ BDP], Umbrella for Democratic Change [ UDC] and Botswana Congress Party [ BCP]. e team will stand outside the polling station and question those who have just voted.

Unlike an opinion poll, data can only be collected by face- to- face interviews. Later in the day at an agreed time before the polling stations close, numbers of voters for each party at each polling station can then be totalled. Each party member will then sign on the form to say that they agree with the result and how it was obtained and the information will then be forwarded to a central place in the constituency.

For example, at one constituency results from each of the polling stations may be as follows [ let us assume that there are three polling stations]:

Here total numbers of people who voted for each party at each polling station have been computed. In this case, the winner was the UDC at two of the polling stations whilst the ruling party won in the last polling station. e overall winner was the UDC. e results for the constituency are then sent to an agreed upon place in Gaborone where results from all constituencies are received. Here the total number of constituencies that voted for each party across the whole country will be computed and, once again, this will be witnessed by representatives of all political parties that have participated in the election. ese numbers will be entered on a form and party representatives will then sign to show that they agree with the nal results.

Let us say that the nal exit poll results show 38 constituencies where most voters have said that they voted for the UDC. Hence, the results will show a likely UDC win once all the actual votes cast in the election have been counted.

Now exit polls may face the same challenges and problems as opinion polls. However, the problem of too few young people registering to vote does not exist with an exit poll. On the day of the 2019 UK general election, polling agencies carried out an exit poll throughout the country. e poll was conducted throughout election day and the results were released once the polling stations had closed at 10pm. e results showed that the ruling Conservative party would win 368 constituencies out of a total of 650, and secure a majority of 86 in Parliament. Once all the votes cast in the election had been counted, the Conservatives had actually won 365 constituencies and secured a majority of 80 in Parliament. is shows that exit polls can be quite accurate in predicting the outcome of an election. In the case of the 2019 UK general election, the Opposition Labour party could not accuse the ruling party of vote rigging!

Pollsters may also carry out an entrance poll. is is a poll that is taken just before voters have cast their votes at polling stations. One advantage of this type of poll is that estimates of the nal election result can be obtained more quickly than those of exit polls because the people can be questioned earlier. However, there is always the possibility that a voter may change his or her mind between being interviewed and then actually voting.

Of course, there is always a margin of error in these types of polls. However, exit polls are the most reliable and, if conducted in the right way, they can give a pretty good idea of the nal election result and so minimise claims of vote rigging.