Changing political landscape could favour UDC
Why should people doubt the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) coalition’s capability to assume power and run a strong government simply because it is showing signs of divisions and differences of opinion on some matters?
Going into inventory of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), one would realise that for a very long time since the reign of late former president Sir Ketumile Masire this country has been led by successive BDP governments formed by a deeply polarised and limping party. And yet the sky did not fall.
Batswana continued to entrust their future with the BDP in spite of its undisguised internal cracks. In this regard, Batswana must learn to distinguish party affairs from government affairs. Government is not all about party affairs - rather it is a big machinery standing on the shoulders of the public service.
Therefore, the nation must learn to exercise a bit of fairness and avoid double standards when judging the readiness and suitability of the opposition coalition as an alternative government. There is need for universal standards applicable to all political formations and there should not be one set of standards for the ruling party and another for the opposition. In the ongoing 12th Parliament, the UDC coalition has demonstrated some degree of maturity, unity of purpose and mind when executing its mandate of keeping the ruling party on its toes, holding it accountable and going deeper to propose alternative ideas.
Now, Batswana are getting accustomed to waiting for the alternative view because indeed there is an alternative view. If this is not a sign of readiness to rule, one does know what else is.
Change is inevitable. Botswana’s political landscape is changing.
UDC shall ultimately rule. For 81 years the British were here as a coloniser and theirs was called the empire on which the sun never sets. With hindsight benefit, this was an illusion and the sun finally set. And if the end came for the mighty British Empire why would it not come for the BDP?
You only have to examine closely what is happening in government to be able to gauge the tempo of the UDC coalition and its revolution claims. The real material conditions on the ground are presenting a fertile environment for regime change. And the main opposition (UDC), however weak it may be perceived, could find itself sitting at the right place and the right time to profit from this process of change, which the people disaffected with the current regime may initiate.
As such, one cannot discuss the fate of the UDC without juxtaposing it with the fortunes of the ruling BDP. The fortunes of the two rival parties are clearly intertwined. Since assuming power, it seems President Mokgweetsi Masisi is leading a declining state even though the party continues to hide itself from this inescapable reality.
Life in and of it is a good teacher and for the past two years, Batswana have learnt great and unprecedented political lessons offered freely by the ruling party. The BDP has been found wanting in many respects for the last two years.
By its actions and inactions the BDP has alienated itself from the people who had shown so much confidence in it over the years. The feeling of disaffection with the BDP could make people switch loyalty to alternative parties. Eventually, as Karl Marx once put it they would have, “realised they have nothing to lose but their chains” in reference to the struggle of the working class.
How come a regime change could be possible in Botswana in a climate where the main opposition, the UDC, appears to be at war with itself ? Yes, the opposition may not be at its best shape to seize power. But, still its prospects look good. The opposition’s source of strength seems to come from some unexpected quarter - the BDP itself.
The political misdemeanours committed by the BDP in the last three years have made the opposition look more credible in the eyes of the people. Power is on offer and the UDC stands a chance of harvesting low hanging fruits.
To its credit, the UDC-led opposition has given a good account of itself in parliamentary debate. The party has done itself a great favour in Parliament by rebranding itself as the voice of the voiceless. And everyone can now see the exploits and efforts of the opposition live on television. The life screening of parliamentary sessions on the national television, occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic has accorded the people a rare opportunity to gather firsthand experience the effectiveness or otherwise of their elected representatives.
Prior to this new dispensation, Radio Botswana was charged with the task of feeding the electorate with edited and second-hand information on the performance of their political representatives.
This arrangement did not give people a clear and accurate picture of what exactly was going in the august house. Now, the game has changed altogether. In the 12th Parliament, the opposition appears to have undergone a sense of renewal. On several instances, while debating matters brought before Parliament, the opposition outsmarted and outmanoeuvred their counterparts while at the same time taking positions, which seemed to be in accord with the desires of ordinary people.
The opposition bench gave a good account of itself on issues surrounding declaration of and continuing State of Public Emergency (SOE), the 14% Value Added Tax (VAT), prosecution of COVID-19 war effort to name but a few.
The opposition legislators have made a strong and compelling case against perpetuation of the SOE, which in their view has not made management, and prosecution of the war against COVID-19 any better.
They continue harping on the glaring mistakes the BDP is perceived to have made on COVID-19 especially with respect to the thorny issue of procurement of vaccines, poor handling of travel permits across zones, inability to contain the spread of COVID-19 and associated deaths.
To the opposition, these issues constitute sufficient evidence of failure on the part of the government. Many especially the poorest of the poor bear the brunt of the imposition of the 14% VAT and have become fully appreciative of the opposition’s initial vehement rejection of the levy.
In so far as debates are concerned, the UDCled opposition has hitherto fared well and indeed the party has become a darling of the masses in this regard.
And it is safe to conclude that the public sympathy that the UDC has won should translate into votes at the next General Election. People have noted with concern the BDP’s abuse of its majority in Parliament.
The BDP’s current representatives are not equal to the task and often show amateurish behaviour in Parliament and indeed they are letting down their brand.
On matters of debate, the BDP fared badly. On many occasions, when the BDP could not navigate the rough terrain on the debate floor, it used its numerical superiority in Parliament to frustrate the efforts of the opposition and by extension the will of the people.
Credit must go to the opposition for successfully showing all and sundry that all that matters on the BDP side is the party caucus.
When debating matters, the party caucus and not their individual consciences guide the BDP representatives in the main. It is an open secret that the BDP has a deep-rooted culture compelling its legislators to sacrifice the interests of individuals on the altar of party unity. It is a case of placing the welfare of the party ahead of the interests of those who elected them into office.
When taking the floor, individual BDP MPs usually take turns to rehearse pre-conceived positions in order to demonstrate party loyalty and reverence for leadership.
While this approach keeps the party intact, it deprives individual MPs the opportunity to connect with those who elected them into office. This line of approach makes the contributions of BDP representatives dull and predictable. Subsequently, it is clear how the BDP is losing the plot in Parliament and it explains why the opposition has an edge over rivals.
When seeking office, the BDP promised to exorcise the country of the demon of corruption and this promise endeared its new leadership to the people.
Hitherto, efforts to stamp out corruption have yielded nothing and this does not demonstrate any political will on the part of the BDP to uproot corruption.
The UDC is most likely to benefit from failure on the part of the BDP to fulfil its electoral promises. The UDC stands a good chance of scoring big if it can keep its house in order, restrain its rabble rousing members and take advantage of the glaring weaknesses of the BDP.
The talk about unity of the UDC is neither here nor there. In any case, once in office the UDC would learn the art of faking unity, something the BDP learnt and perfected for over half a century.