UDC, BCP marriage broken down irretrievably –UB expert

As tensions continue to flare up between the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) and its affiliate, the Botswana Congress Party (BCP), analysts are predicting that ominous dark clouds are gathering overhead the country’s main opposition bloc.

FRANCISTOWN: For some time, tensions have been simmering between the UDC and the BCP over democracy, constitutionalism and good governance issues within the umbrella.

The BCP says the UDC, particularly its leader, Duma Boko, is bereft of the above mentioned political tenets but Boko denies that. Boko has explained on numerous occasions that contrary to claims from some quarters, he does not unilaterally take decisions within the UDC. The UDC leader added that decisions within the UDC are taken by its NEC.

The soured situation has led some analysts to suggest that it is only a matter of time before the marriage between the UDC and the BCP is declared to have irretrievably broken down. The running battles between the UDC and the BCP gathered more steam recently after the former gave the latter’s Members of Parliament (MPs) and councillors an ultimatum to confirm in writing by September 26 their desire to represent the UDC in the 2024 General Election.

The ultimatum further dangled a carrot to the BCP MPs and councillors promising them that should they acquiesce to the UDC demand by September 26, they will be exempted from competing in primary elections in their respective constituencies and wards in the build up to the 2024 General Election. For now, the action that the UDC NEC will take against the BCP MPs and councillors who will defy its ultimatum remains a matter of speculation. On the other hand, following the UDC communiqué, the BCP released a strongly worded press release advising its MPs and councillors against acceding to the request of the UDC. It is not known what action the BCP will take against its activists in Parliament and councils should they acquiesce to the proposal dangled by the UDC NEC.

However, it is a well known fact that in July this year, the BCP central committee took a decision to suspend five MPs from its ranks with immediate effect pending disciplinary action. The five MPs were suspended for defying a party directive not to participate in the UDC parliamentary caucus that was held on July 10 or any subsequent caucuses intended to deal with any matter affecting the BCP president, Dumelang Saleshando and secretary-general, Goretetse Kekgonegile following their suspension from the UDC until the BCP dealt with their suspensions at its conference that was held from July 15-18 in Mahalapye.

The UDC conference later resolved to expel the five legislators from the party but one of them, Kenny Kapinga, has since applied to rejoin the ‘lime movement’. There is swirling speculation, however, that those who will defy the BCP communiqué may also experience the same fate that befell the five legislators. Some political observers and the BCP supporters view the latest move by the UDC NEC as a strategy to further destabilise the BCP.

In the midst of all these bickering between the UDC and BCP, the BCP and the Alliance for Progressives (AP) are seriously engaged in talks to strike some form of a working relationship led by the duo that “will build a democratic and accountable alternative towards the 2024 General Elections”. The above quote is as per the recent BCP press release entitled “UDC ultimatum inconsequential”.

The melee between the UDC and the BCP has left opposition followers fearing that the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) will romp to victory in the 2024 General Election because of vote splitting.

A political observer at the University of Botswana (UB), Adam Mfundisi suggests that under the leadership of Boko, the BCP will find it difficult to remain in the coalition formation. According to Mfundisi, Boko is causing the BCP to move out of the UDC through overt and covert means.

“The letter addressed to the BCP politicians is an affront to democratic principles... I am under the impression that each contracting party in the coalition has its own internal democratic processes designed to nominate political office-bearers... I assume that the letter is a continuation of the BNFled UDC to push out the BCP and its leadership from the UDC. I have read the anti-defection law properly, and the Boko-led UDC has limited leverage to institute by-elections in wards and constituencies under the BCP,” says Mfundisi. The analyst also holds the view that even if the UDC NEC can expel BCP representatives from the UDC, they will remain as independents until the 2024 General Election.

“Only when they individually decide to defect to another political party in council or Parliament, then a new mandate would be sought. Therefore, the threat insinuated in the letter is of no force or effect. It’s merely political rhetoric to appeal to the BNF supporters in the UDC… The UDC or Nothing slogan is sterile if the coalition formation does not subscribe to democratic values, principles, norms, which contribute to good governance premised on ethics and accountability. The ultimatum amounts to intimidation, blackmail and manipulation to coerce some BCP politicians to decamp the party in anticipation of any political dividends,” Mfundisi posits.

The change of government, Mfundisi notes, cannot be necessarily attained only through the UDC. “If the AP and BCP form a coalition arrangement that in itself enhances the democratic landscape, a three-horse political contest premised on a free, fair, credible, verifiable and accountable electoral process is what is required. In Kenya, Malawi, Zambia, amongst others, ruling parties were defeated without one coalition of political parties. This can still be obtained in Botswana. The BCP is calculative in its political arithmetic. It comprises seasoned politicians who are knowledgeable and skilled in the political game. They have learnt lessons from the 2014 and 2019 General Elections and they adapt their strategies to the prevailing circumstances. An expulsion by the UDC NEC will embolden and invigorate the BCP in collaboration with the AP to form a strong coalition,” Mfundisi says.

The UB expert adds: “Both the AP and the BCP share fundamental principles of democracy and good governance. The BCP MPs within the UDC are doing a sterling job in Parliament and in their constituencies to the satisfaction of the voters.

What UDC NEC under Boko is doing is to force the BCP out of the UDC and brand it anti-regime change hoping that the 2014 vitriolic propaganda would be effective in marginalising the BCP. Times have changed and voters of today are more politically conscious and demand issue-based politics.”

Asked if the toxic relationship between the UDC and the BCP can be salvaged, Mfundisi underscored: “As it stands, the marriage is not sustainable. There are few prospects for reconciliation basically between the BNF of UDC and the BCP of the same. The BCP, in all its statements, points to erosion in democratic principles within the UDC. It articulates deficiencies in ethics, accountability, transparency, good governance, constitutional reforms, amongst others. The leadership issue is contentious in the UDC as the BNF faction seems to be averse to contestations for leadership positions. The position of the BNF is that it is the natural leader of the UDC and therefore attracting criticisms from the BCP in particular. Democratisation of the UDC is one of the issues that cause conflict between the two dominating political parties within the umbrella.”

However, Mfundisi says the conflict between the BNF and the BCP will not necessarily benefit the BDP because the ruling party is also afflicted by internal contradictions and conflicts. “The BDP is factionally compromised. It has failed to manage the country in order to provide quality goods and services. Its electoral promises have barely been implemented. And the BDP policies have led to high levels of corruption that exacerbated poverty, unemployment, inequality, criminality, and other socio-political ills affecting this country…Corruption has blossomed during the State of Emergencies and politicians aligned to the BDP milked the coffers of the State with immunity and impunity. So, there will be no dividends to the BDP but political consolidation,” Mfundisi underlined.

Asked to comment on the issue, another UB academic, Professor Zibani Maundeni said: “I think the UDC wants to settle the issue well in time to avoid confusion as the 2024 election approaches. I think it is timely to raise the issue now so that the BCP and the UDC can plan separately or jointly. It is in the best interest of all that the issue is settled now. Painful decisions will have to be made.”