Is Lesotho turning the corner?

Optimism is high in Lesotho after a newly formed political party gathered the highest number of seats by a single party since 2007, almost enough votes to form a government on its own, in the recent elections.

The achievement by the sixmonth old Revolution for Prosperity (RFP) is a rare occurrence in a country where fragile political coalitions have caused political instability and violence in recent years, occasioning the intervention of SADC and regional leaders.

The RFP, led by diamond magnate, Sam Matekane, grabbed 56 out of 120 parliamentary seats in the October 7 elections, sweeping aside established parties and alliances that had dominated the mountain kingdom’s Parliament for years.

Matekane’s party fell just five seats shy of forming a simple majority and being able to establish a government of its own. The RFP has since reached a coalition agreement with the Alliance of Democrats and the Movement for Economic Change.

Political and security conflicts, often leading to violence and bloodshed, have rocked Lesotho in one form or another since its independence on October 4, 1966, just three days after Botswana attained the same. Tensions within the fractious coalitions have been worsened by the fact that the sections of the security forces’ leadership have been loyal to certain leaders and prepared to respond with violence to measures they are unhappy about.

This week, Professor Motlamelle Kapa, a political scientist at the National University of Lesotho told Mmegi that the election’s outcome held considerable potential for both political stability and economic development in the mountain kingdom.

“All the main parties, which had lost the election and would otherwise cause instability, namely the All Basotho Convention, Democratic Congress and Basotho Action Party, have all accepted the outcome publicly,” he said.

“The security forces also have, this time, stayed out of politics unlike in the past.”

The All Basotho Convention (ABC) won the most seats in the last elections in 2017, allowing its leader, Tom Thabane to return from exile and become Prime Minister. However, Thabane resigned under a cloud of suspicion over the murder of his estranged wife, Dipolelo and in the recent elections, the ABC fell from 48 seats to just eight.

The Democratic Congress, the party of Thabane’s predecessor, Pakalitha Mosisili, saw its seats cut to 29 from 30, while the Basotho Action Party (BAP) garnered six seats.

The military, which has frequently featured at the centre of Lesotho’s political disturbances, appears to have taken a hands-off approach in the recent elections.

“The military seems to have left politics to politicians,” Kapa told Mmegi.

“The current command seems to have decided to stay clear of partisan party politics but focus on the security of the country and its people. “In the past few months, there was a worrying spike in violent crime, which the police seemed unable to contain.

“The military stepped in and restored security.”

In 2014, Thabane, Mosisili and Lesotho Defence Force commanders, Tladi Kamodi and Maaparankoe Mahao were at the centre of a power struggle, which ultimately resulted in Mahao’s assassination and Thabane’s exile in 2015.

SADC intervened, ultimately recommending the prosecution of numerous military figures and urgent constitutional reforms required to stabilise politics in Lesotho. Through further national consultations, reforms pending in the kingdom include limiting the Prime Minister’s power to appoint judges, setting a bar for political party representation in Parliament and amending the floor crossing legislation that has allowed fractious coalitions to thrive.

According to John Aerni-Flessner, an associate professor of African History at Michigan State University in the United States, Matekane and the RFP’s appeal has been around his commitment to instituting these reforms.

Matekane ran on a promise of prioritising the constitutional and institutional reforms within his first 100 days in office.

“It’s an inflection point and the RFP could be the party that brings about the reforms that Lesotho needs,” Aerni-Flessner told Mmegi.

“They have the opportunity and whether they can with their coalition is an open question.

“It is felt that this is the best chance to carry out the necessary reforms that SADC, South Africa and ordinary Basotho have been pushing for.”

The last Parliament, dominated by the traditional powerhouses of Lesotho politics, failed to carry out the reforms, partly because some of these changes would weaken legislators and leaders’ powers. The parties, analysts say, gambled on challenging for the elections and then addressing the reforms after, a bet many lost heavily.

Matekane, meanwhile, is seen as not only credible and competent, but well removed from the contentious politics that have dogged Lesotho over the years and paralysed its economic development.

“Matekane’s pull is that he was not one of the politicians already in power,” explained Aerni-Flessner.

“He is a successful businessman and has promised to govern differently.

“He has done a good job in the past four or five years of positioning himself in the public eye, working with the COVID-19 vaccination programme and being a leading benefactor to the public.

“While some in Lesotho see getting into government as a way of getting rich, Matekane’s argument was that he does not need government because he is already wealthy.”

According to Kapa, while the RFP won a large number of seats, Matekane and his coalition partners face the challenge of implementing the reforms.

“The coalition government has 65 out of 120 seats in parliament.

“That is, however, not enough, especially for passing the constitutional reforms bills as some of these require a two-thirds majority in both the National Assembly and the Senate.

“In that regard, the BAP with its six seats, has promised during its recent press conference that it will be a ‘loyal and constructive opposition’ that will support the coalition government on issues of national importance,” the political scientist told Mmegi.

Analysts agree that the stage is set for the reforms that could usher Lesotho into a new era of political stability and economic development.

The security forces are also, for the meantime, watching from the sidelines and focussing on their constitutional mandate.

“One major problem with the security forces is that they are deeply entwined with the political system and get promotions based on that,” said Aerni-Flessner.

“The troubles in the last 10 years came because the two sides that were trading the Prime Minister’s office had different groups they were backing in the security forces.

“With Matekane, this is nullified because sides in the security forces don’t know where they fall with the current government and the security forces also don’t have a reason to intervene because they are not threatened by the new leaders.

“The RFP is new and does not have alliances within the security forces.”

Analysts agree that the troubled mountain kingdom could be on its way out of instability and violence.