ECONOMY PROJECTED TO GROW BY 8.8% THIS YEAR
Bank of Botswana Governor, Moses Pelaelo, says the central bank forecasts the domestic economy to grow by 8.8 percent this year.
Speaking during the launch of the Monetary Policy Statement of Tuesday, the governor said the improvement, which is largely a reversal of the stated contraction of 7.7 percent in 2020, is premised on conducive financing conditions associated with accommodative monetary policy and a sound financial environment.
“In addition, the mid-term review of the National Development Plan 11, supported by effective implementation of the Economic Recovery and Transformation Plan, provides added impetus for positive economic prospects,” said Pelaelo.
Last year, Botswana’s output contracted by 6.4 percent in the twelve months to September 2020, compared to an increase of 3.7 percent in the year to September 2019.
“Both the mining and nonmining production fell, mainly resulting from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic containment measures. Mining output declined significantly by 21.9 percent in the year to September 2020, compared to a 1.4 percent growth in the year to September 2019,” said the governor.
During the same period, nonmining GDP contracted by 4.7 percent compared to a growth of 3.9 percent in the corresponding period in 2019.
Meanwhile, domestic inflation is said to have been below the lower bound of the objective range of 3-6 percent in 2020, which Pelaelo noted was broadly consis
tent with earlier projections.
It is expected that inflation will revert to within the Bank’s 3-6 percent medium-term objective range from the second quarter of 2021.
The governor said the forecast takes into consideration the expected increase in value-added tax, fuel levy, electricity tariffs, Botswana Housing Corporation rentals, as well as the introduction of the sugar tax.
“The forecast also takes into account the likely impact on domestic fuel prices of the expected increase in international oil prices, the anticipated strengthening of commodity prices generally, the upward revision in the South African inflation forecasts and the base effects associated with the decrease in fuel prices in 2020,” he explained.
With projections suggesting that inflation will revert to the medium-term range, Pelaelo said indications are that inflation would move closer to the upper bound of the objective range.
We should all feel lucky to be alive.
I’m not saying that because of current health concerns; I’m saying it because I think it’s a sensible thing to believe… and because for every one of us, some day that situation will change.
An added benefit at the moment, however, might be that it would help us cope better with lockdown. For some people, that means dealing with lost income and the struggle to put food on the table, while for others the challenges are more psychological. Things like coping with restrictions on who we can see, what we can eat and drink and what activities we can pursue.
No one can be happy about those things, but I believe the best way to deal with them is by not feeling sorry for ourselves, focusing on things we enjoy in our lives and getting on with it as best we can. And the good news is that I believe local culture may give Batswana an advantage in doing that over most of the people I grew up with in the United States and the people I live with today in England.
I say that because of something I first noticed 25 years ago after I’d been queueing for over an hour in the Francistown post office. Yeah, I can guess what some of you are thinking: that’s not long to wait in a government building, but the Europeans who were waiting with me did not agree.
And that’s what I noticed. The five or six white people with their European and South African expectations were jumpy and miserable while the 30 or so Batswana and other black African people in the queue didn’t seem to be suffering at all. They didn’t have smart phones or anything else to play with, but they all seemed calm and content.
I’m not saying they were happy, but the Africans had more realistic expectations of the civil servants on the other side of the counter so they didn’t waste energy worrying about things that were beyond their control. That meant when they finally concluded their business, they were mentally ready to make the most of the rest of the day.
The other thing everyone had from that experience was a reference point for appreciating better service elsewhere in the country and the improvements that eventually came to the post office itself. After all, the only way we can see something as good is if we can compare it to something else that we have labelled as bad.
So, maybe that’s what we can do with the hardships we are facing now. See them as reference points for better times to come. Or maybe we should consider the advantages of not judging things as good or bad, but instead just noticing that we like some things more than others.
Take that sunrise at the top of the page, for example. I definitely like it and think it is beautiful, but I can’t say it is a good sunrise because that would mean there is such a thing as a bad one. Or, on the flipside, aging. I don’t like getting old, but I don’t see it as bad… especially when I consider the alternative.