1

David Albright, Future Directions in the DPRK’S Nuclear Weapons Program: Three Scenarios For 2020 (Us-korea Institute at SAIS, 2015), p. 30.

2 Korean Central News Agency, March 31, 2013.

3 Extended deterrence refers to a type of strategic coercion including: 1) potential enemy state actively considers military force toward defending state’s allies; 2) defending state perceives the threat faced by its allies; 3) defending state clearly states it will use military retaliation or block enemy state’s use of military force by expanding its own military force. Paul K. Huth, “Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War,” The American Political Science Review, Vol. 82, No. 2 (June 1988), p. 424.

4 According to A. N. Sabrosky, among 177 incidences of war between 1816 and 1965, allies complied with the pledge only 48 times, stayed neutral 108 times and fought allies 21 times. As such, the credibility of alliances was low. Cited from A. N. Sabrosky, “Interstate Alliances: Their Reliability and the Expansion of War,” J. D. Singer (eds.), The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik

Models (New York: Free Press, 1980), pp. 161-198; Brett Ashley Leeds, Andrew G. Long, Sara Mclaughlin Mitchell, “Reevaluating Alliance Reliability: Specific Threats, Specific Promises,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 44, No. 5 (Oct., 2000), p. 690.

5 Stephen M. Walt, “Alliances in a Unipolar World,” World Politics, Vol. 61. No. 1 (January 2009), p. 90. 6 www.ksoi.org/news-view.php?nno=58; www.realmeter. net/?s=%ed%95%b5.

7 South Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs, www.mofa.go.kr/www/ wpge/m_3528/contents.do.

8 South Korea Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Outcome of 2nd Meeting of ROK-US Extended Deterrence Strategy and

Consultation Group (2018.01.18),” www.mofa.go.kr/eng/ brd/m_5676/view.do?seq=319650.

9 Korea Association of Defense Industry Studies, Korea Defense Industry 40 Years: History of Endless Challenge (Seoul: Planetmedia, 2015), pp. 47-51. 10 Korea Defense Industry Association, 2016 Bangsanjeongchaegyeongu (Seoul: KDIA, 2016), pp, 31-32.

11 Charles Wolf, Jr. et al., The Changing Balance: South and North Korean Capabilities for Long-term Military Competition (Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1985), p. 43.