Beijing Faces New Challenges
In his landmark 1994 book, The Rise of China,
William Overholt presciently anticipated the decades of explosive economic growth awaiting the world’s most populous nation. Now he argues that the very success of Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening-up” policy has created an impasse for President Xi Jinping’s quest to realize “the Chinese dream.” At the core of this dilemma is the contradiction between the freedom and complexity of social and economic life and the simplistic formula of authoritarian rule. Overholt explains four areas of growing challenge — inequality, corruption, pollution and globalization — as manifestations of this deeper “crisis of success.” Along the way, he draws on a deep knowledge of neighboring countries — Japan, South Korea and the Philippines, to name a few — to put China’s success and the crisis it now faces in comparative perspective.
The Asia-wide lens is also useful in thinking through future scenarios. For example, Overholt warns of signs that China is heading into a version of Japan-style stagnation. Yet he does not rule out the possibility that China’s political economy could adapt and reinvent itself with the kind of dynamism evident in South Korea’s trajectory. He offers no easy answers or cheap predictions, but shines light on the problem facing the leadership in Beijing, whose failure or success will impact the region and the world.
He offers no easy answers or cheap predictions, but shines light on the problem facing Beijing.