The East Asia-europe Security Nexus

eu policy-makers pay too little heed to the need for new strategic thinking.

The growing rivalry between China and the United States, centered on the contest for influence in East Asia, has important implications for the security policy of the European Union as it faces a more assertive Russia and other challenges. In the future, the US is likely to devote more attention and resources to Asia, and even to call on its European allies in the event of conflict in the Asia-pacific.

And yet, not enough attention is being paid by EU policy-makers to the need for new strategic thinking, writes Øystein Tunsjø. FOR MORE THAN 500 years, global power was centered in Europe and the West. For centuries, European nations have been among the most powerful in the international system. But this is changing. As I argue in my latest book, the world is entering a new bipolar system concentrated on East Asia, with the United States and China as the two superpowers. However, the EU’S Global Strategy for Foreign and Security Policy has neglected these important developments. It is not difficult to see why. The strategy focuses on the pressing issues of today, including an assertive Russia, terrorism, migration and the refugee crisis, Brexit, populism, economic crises, climate change, cyber security and energy security. Preoccupation with these challenges has led the EU and European states to overlook how global power shifts affect Europe. Similarly, NATO’S strategic thinking on changes in the global balance of power and its implications for Europe remains underdeveloped. By focusing on a comparative analysis of the US and its two flanking regions, I seek in this article to examine how security challenges in East Asia mirror those facing the US and its allies in Europe. It focuses on the allies’ response to the antiaccess/area-denial capabilities developed by China and Russia, their co-operation on missile defense, the deterrence/reassurance predicaments inherent to their alliances and the risks that a potential conflict in East Asia pose to Europe.

China: the Only Peer Competitor

The contemporary rise of China suggests that the balance of power in the US’S two flanking regions is only challenged in East Asia. China’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and defense spending is