Can Southeast Asia Navigate Between the US and China?
Where Great Powers Meet: America & China in Southeast Asia
Where Great Powers Meet: America & China in Southeast Asia
As China has turned from deng Xiaoping’s call to “hide your strength and bide your time” to Xi Jinping’s exhortation to realize the “China dream” and rejuvenate China, the bookshelves on China have steadily filled up. One of the most popular publishing themes has been China’s relations with the United states and southeast Asia. Although david shambaugh’s current volume adds to the growing list, it is a book that stands apart as a rare single-author study of southeast Asia by an eminent China scholar. despite his self-deprecating modesty about being a neophyte in southeast Asian scholarship, his book, infused with China expertise, is a major contribution to the study of the region. He has combined decades of experience following Us-china policy as a scholar and practitioner with research and reporting in the region to produce a rich and engaging book that will benefit both general readers and specialists.
tracing American interest in Asia from the early 19th century and Chinese involvement in the region from the pre-christian era to the present, the book offers valuable background to lay readers. from the Vietnam War the account gets fuller and the book presents a comprehensive account of the region’s developing relations with Beijing and Washington. the narrative that follows analyzing the great powers’ relations with the region is enlivened by the author’s interviews with academics and senior officials who are often candid. examples: A Malaysian official on choosing between China and the Us: “don’t ask us to choose, as you may not like the answer.” senior singaporean diplomat and ambassadorat-large tommy Koh: “in the contest for influence in Asean between China and the Us, the Chinese are winning the competition.” A senior thai diplomat: “it is too late for us thais to escape China — we are just trying to keep from being smothered by it.”
some of the aspects that distinguish this book from others is China’s educational and intellectual connections with the region. Among the noteworthy new developments is Chinese and southeast Asian student exchanges. shambaugh found that the number of Asean students studying in guanxi province alone amounted to 10,000 in 2017. A large number of Chinese students have also flocked to southeast Asia — some 8,444 alone in thailand. professional exchanges too have grown, with as many as half of the thai Army officer corps receiving some training in China. in a novel experiment, Xiamen University has opened a campus outside Kuala Lumpur — the first Chinese university in southeast Asia. shambaugh is, however, less than impressed by the result of this growing exchange on mutual understanding. After surveying Chinese universities and think tanks specializing in the region and talking with experts, he concludes that there is “surprisingly sparse expertise on southeast Asia in China.” their studies focus more on Us policies and relations with southeast Asia than on the region itself.
despite America’s longstanding interest in the region, shambaugh is appalled by the trump administration’s sparse attention to the region, which compares poorly with China’s wellorganized efforts, as evidenced by large numbers of personnel in embassies. “the disparity in staffing levels is indicative of the importance each government attaches to Asean,” he concludes. But he still cautions against drawing hasty conclusions. He writes that “there is already a pervasive and growing sense of China’s “overwhelming” nature … China’s attempts to “pull” the region within its grasp can actually have the exact opposite effect of “pushing” it away.”
there are also worrisome lacunae in knowledge. shambaugh notes that little is known
about China’s influencing activities in southeast Asia — about which a considerable amount has been published around the world. “it is certainly not because Chinese influence activities do not exist, yet not much is known about [the] covert or disguised activities” by the Communist party’s United front Work department.
the author’s attempt to evaluate the political, economic, cultural and military relations between the powers and the region both from “outside in” — and then from the “inside out” perspective of southeast Asian countries — is the red thread running through the book. is it right, as is fashionable in the region, to view China as the “inevitable” dominant power and the Us in inexorable eclipse and decline? Although Us influence in the region has slipped under donald trump’s presidency, shambaugh finds that the Us still has deep roots and possesses far more comprehensive power in the region than China. in his view, the Us remains an “underappreciated power,” while China’s position is overestimated. in his finely nuanced assessment, while “no southeast Asian government is willing to openly criticize China or premise its foreign and security policies on countering China’s expanding reach into the region,” with the existence of the Us and other middle powers southeast Asia ensures that it has not become China’s sphere of influence. He concludes that other than Cambodia, which he considers a Chinese “client state,” “not a single country in the region is entirely under either Chinese or American influence.”
Based on a comprehensive analysis of America’s role in the region — from private investment and soft power presence and positive perceptions of southeast Asians towards the Us — shambaugh believes that the Us holds a comparative advantage. Besides, he says, “Beijing is quite capable of overplaying its hand, becoming too demanding and even dictatorial toward southeast Asian states.” evidence of this behavior can already be found in Chinese interactions with Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, thailand and Vietnam. the book suggests that the strategic contest between the two powers will be protracted. “My guess,” shambaugh concludes, “is that the ultimate ‘winner’ will be southeast Asia — not Washington and not Beijing — as Asean states and societies will be able to maximize benefits
Shambaugh finds that the US still has deep roots and possesses far more comprehensive power in the region than China. In his view, the US remains an ‘underappreciated power,’ while China’s position is overestimated.
from both powers while successfully adapting their traditional ‘hedging’ strategies to keep both powers at bay.”
With a new occupant in the White House from early next year, there is a strong possibility that the Us will return to the region in force and deny China a free run in southeast Asia. shambaugh’s rich book will be a valuable guide in following the new game.