The Arctic in the Earth’s Climate System

Unprecedented change in weather extremes and sea levels are among factors that mean the region has become a new global common.

The changes in the decades ahead in the Arctic will have enormous impacts and consequences across a range of economic, environmental, social and geopolitical realities in the lower latitudes, most notably the increases in extreme weather, rising sea levels, global commerce, energy transformations and multinational geopolitics, writes Robert W. Corell.

This unprecedented change means that the Arctic region has become a new global common. the SCALE Of Change in what is increasingly called “the new Arctic” is unprecedented and marks an emerging reality. there is an interconnectedness between changes across the circumpolar Arctic and global changes that are nested in socio-economics, policy realities, national aspirations and cultures. this new Arctic is increasingly affected directly by changes in the global earth system and economic and geopolitical realities. it is paralleled by what might be called an emerging new world order that is multi-dimensional and is affecting the foundations of the new Arctic. for example, the World economic forum, which sees a complex transformation, has concluded: We stand on the brink of a technological revolution that will fundamentally alter the way we live, work, and relate to one another. in its scale, scope, and complexity, the transformation will be unlike anything humankind has experienced before. We do not yet know just how it will unfold, but one thing is clear: the response to it must be integrated and comprehensive, involving all stakeholders of the global polity, from the public and private sectors to academia and civil society.

there is a school of thought that posits that the 21st century will be underpinned by a knowledge revolution.1 Knowledge-based economies are already emerging where science- and technology-intensive practices (the global digital technology interconnecting cyberspace) will lead to new levels of innovation and will assume a commanding role in all major economies.2 this is happening in virtually every economic sector — in services, agriculture and advanced manufac

the knowledge revolution is leading to a vision of society that is very innovative in the use of knowledge and very conservative in the use of the earth’s resources, with societies centered on diversity and human capital and offering the prospect of substantial economic progress without damaging the ecosystems that support life on earth. it is argued that Asian nations (China, south Korea, Japan, india, singapore and others) have substantially invested in education and research to build knowledge-based societies.3,4 there are now global forces emerging where knowledge is likely a base requirement to foster socio-economic and sustainable development: •Accelerating economic, environmental and social disruption: these are forces that must be nested in our understanding of risk on temporal and spatial scales.5 • New governance and operating models:

One approach is to embrace the “valuechain strategy”that prioritizes measurable/meaningful results in articulating the value provided by use-inspired science, then through all steps that lead to the value it provides for society. these are tested strategies that are already evolving across the planet and among Asian countries (as used, for example, by the World Meteorological Organization, Mckinsey and deloitte, to note a few).6 • Greater transparency and accountability:

Openness will increasingly become the norm as we articulate our science, education and research strategies and programs.7 Cyber-technology has made this openness a more poignant reality.8 •Increased expectation for returns: governments and other investors want a return on investments made in science, research and earth education as we face this reality of the 21st century. 9 these background issues underpin the realturing.

of six global-scale changes — described in the panel on the previous page — that the world faces as a consequence of climate changes in the Arctic, with a distinct set of perspectives for Asian societies. the implications of these for the likes of global weather patterns, ocean life, use of natural resources and geopolitical trends are profound, as the following paragraphs discuss.

Increased heat and weather extremes

the impact of temperature extremes on crop production has been well documented. With the likelihood of more record heat and precipitation, crop yields are more vulnerable. in recent years, scientists have studied the pattern of the polar vortex to determine how much cold air escapes from the Arctic and makes its way to the United states during the winter and, conversely, how it facilitates warmer air to be transported to high latitudes. it appears that the Arctic’s polar vortex is substantially influencing northern hemisphere weather, largely because the temperature differences between the equatorial region and the pole have been reduced by the changing climate, hence the jet stream does not have enough force to maintain its usual path, which has resulted in it becoming wavy and rambling.

recent observations show more frequent weather extremes across the globe: what were previously seen as 1-in-100 year events now appear to be more like 1-in-20 year events or even more frequent. in russia, an extreme high temperature occurred in June 2020 in the siberian town of Verkhoyansk, reaching 40°C, which meteorologists say is the highest number ever recorded north of the Arctic Circle. normally, temperatures in Verkhoyansk average -40°C in winter, and rarely get warmer than 20°C in summer. Over the past century, as global surface temperatures rise, China has been warming faster than the world average. in China, heat waves are increasing; severe rainfalls are increasing; and light rainfalls are decreasing. the increase of extreme heat and rain means that the meteorological factors for both drought and floods are also increasing. the world average surface temperature rise in the past century was less than 1°C, but for China, it was 1.3-1.6°C, according to updated studies.10

hydrological cycle surging

the stronger hydrological cycle enhanced by the changing climate leads to more water per storm across the globe while other areas may become prone to drought, as the traditional locations of rain belts and deserts shift in response to a changing climate. some climate models predict that coastal regions will become wetter and the middle of continents will become drier. Also, some models forecast more evaporation and rainfall over oceans, but not necessarily over land. the Us has seen a 30 percent increase in intense rainstorms in the past decade or so. Anthropogenic climate change has contributed to the intensification of continental and regional extreme precipitation in north America and throughout Asia.

global fisheries at risk

fisheries are being stressed to their limits by climate change, with fish populations subjected to new environmental habitats consistent with their temperature optimum (topt); other fish species are disappearing in some regions, especially in the tropics. the impact on China is of great importance because the fisheries and seafood system is central to China. indeed, China alone is expected to account for around half of the growth in global seafood consumption over the coming decades. Asian fisheries are greatly affected by the changing climate. When research studies examined changes in the availability of fish for food from 1930 to 2010, researchers conities

cluded the greatest losses in productivity were in the sea of Japan, the north sea, the iberian Coast, Kuroshio Current and Celtic-biscay shelf ecoregions. global saltwater fish and fishing industries are already subject to climate change effects from toxic “red tide” algae blooms and to temperature optimum migrations. According to the Us national Academy of sciences,11 the total mass of fishes, mollusks and some marine mammals are projected to decrease by 5 percent for every 1.0oc of ocean warming. Ultimately, these changes place at risk fisheries and aquaculture of critical importance for the food, nutrition and employment of millions of people, many of whom struggle to maintain reasonable livelihoods. seafood is an important protein in Asia, which has major marine capture and aquaculture sources. it is likely to play a significant role in the future as Asia accounted for nearly twothirds of the world’s hungry in 2017. importantly, China’s capture fisheries and aquaculture shows a comparatively large potential for future development and growth.

The debate is less over whether the region should be developed, but how or if it can be done sustainably and peaceably. The Arctic is emerging onto the world stage, and it is not yet settled whether businesses, governments and other operators can fully manage the unique risks it poses.

sea level rise

Oceanographer John englander writes: “ice will continue to melt for a very long time on a warmer planet. the pace of sea water rise will accelerate, making flood events ever worse, moving most shorelines inland. trillions of dollars of assets will literally go underwater … rising sea level will likely be the greatest agent of disruption and destruction this century, despite our best belated efforts to slow global warming.”12 global sea levels have been relatively stable from a human perspective for about 5,000 years. However, mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets are already melting, discharging large volumes of water into the planet’s oceans. Based on the records of the last deglaciation, it is clear that ice sheets respond to warmer atmospheric and oceanic temperatures,

leading to substantial glacial mass loss and at rates that are higher than observed in human history, leading to increases in sea-level of several meters per century.

Arctic shipping routes13

Most cargo shipping activity in the Arctic is currently along the northern sea route (nsr), largely to transport natural resources from the Arctic to markets or to transport cargo and supplies to development sites and communities in the Arctic.14 the bulk of this shipping is liquefied natural gas (Lng), with some oil, and supplies to support natural resource development, mostly along the russian coast. shipping on the nsr was up 40 percent in 2019, the major share of which went to Lng produced by the russian company novatek 4, with 16 million tons shipped in 2019. there has also been a modest increase in tourism to the Arctic Ocean. Overall, compared to global shipping, the number of ships operating on the nsr is still a single digit percentage of global shipping.

More natural resource development coming

the potential for Arctic-based natural resource development is based on the availability of (a) Arctic hydrocarbons, including natural gas (30 percent of the global total) and oil (13 percent), and (b) hard minerals including palladium (40 percent of the global total), nickel (22 percent), diamonds (20 percent), platinum (15 percent), zinc (10 percent), and rare earths (25 percent), where these rare minerals are critical for the manufacture of cell phones and other devices. there is also the ancillary policy question of how the extraction of these minerals can, or even should be, managed and optimized for the benefit of local and indigenous Arctic communities. the russian federation is emerging as the early developer of the civil socio-economic infrastructure, and, more recently, as a military presence along the russia Arctic coasts. finland, norway, Canada and the Us are each proposing infrastructure investments. China is increasing its presence as it seeks a greater role through its “polar silk road” initiative, even though China is not a coastal Arctic nation.

Geopolitical shifts

the growing interest in the Arctic and the high north oceanic regions is bringing an influx of new people, cultures, ideas and opportunities into contact with the many Arctic indigenous cultures and communities. in the 21st century,15 many experts are projecting that climate change, technological advances and rising global demand for resources will unlock the considerable economic potential of the circumpolar north. the melting of Arctic sea ice (see figure 1) has prompted many nations, principally those with Arctic Ocean coastlines, the Us, Canada, russia, norway and denmark/ greenland, to reassess their commitments and interests. the debate is less over whether the region should be developed, but how or if it can be done sustainably and peaceably.16 the Arctic is emerging onto the world stage, and it is not yet settled whether businesses, governments and other operators can fully manage the unique risks it poses. it is increasingly clear that the interconnectedness of the Arctic and global interactions are driven by key ocean processes in an Arctic inexorably nested in a global socio-economic and geopolitical framework, and, conversely, that the Arctic is increasingly affecting the global earth system. in effect, the Arctic region has become a new global common.

Robert W. Corell is Principal, Global Environment & technology foundation, united states, and holds faculty appointments at the University of Miami (us) and uarctic (finland).