Global Consequences from Climate Change in the Arctic

1 New weather patterns throughout the Northern Hemisphere

Weather in the Northern Hemisphere is strongly influenced by the jet stream, with shifts in cold air masses from the Arctic moving further south and warmer air masses from the tropics moving further north. Since 1979, there has been a substantial and observable regional and global increase of 40 percent in the mean energy in cyclonic storms (hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons) globally, increasing projections of continued warming.

2 Global fisheries already affected

Fifteen percent of the world’s fish catch and aquaculture comes from Arctic and subarctic waters, and changes underway have important implications for this global food source. Globally, 85 percent of those engaged in catch (53 percent) and aquaculture (47 percent) fisheries are in Asia. Food demand is set to increase by 35 percent in 2030.

3 Increase in Arctic shipping traffic

There is expanding interest in shipping along the Northern Sea Route (NSR), with the percentage of world shipping trade through the NSR projected to reach about 5.5 percent in the coming decades (see Figure 1). For comparison, currently about 8 percent of world trade is transported through the Suez Canal. Further, the projections in the coming decade are that 15 percent of all Chinese trade will be through the NSR.

4 Global sea levels rising

Much of the Arctic’s melting land ice and glaciers ultimately flow into the sea, contributing currently about 38 percent of global mean sea level rise. This rise poses significant threats to human life and infrastructure, especially in vulnerable and densely populated coastal areas. Increasingly, there are multi-meter (e.g. 4.7 meters per century) extreme projections for global mean sea level within 100 years. Analyses suggests that more than 600 million people are living in the lowelevation coastal zone (for example, in China, South Korea and Japan) and the number may increase to more than one billion by 2060.

5 The race to develop Arctic natural resources

Russia is moving to develop the resources along the NSR, including ports and strategies for managing the route. The Arctic region, for example, has the potential to develop reserves of: hydrocarbons (30 percent of the global total of natural gas); rare earth minerals (40 percent of global palladium, essential for catalytic converters and medical tests); essential rare minerals (25 percent of global rare earths), as well as other economically important minerals such as phosphate, bauxite, iron ore, nickel, diamonds and the highestgrade deposits of copper (5 percent of the global total) known in the world.

6 Geopolitical shifts under way

Growing interest in the Arctic is bringing an influx of new people, cultures, ideas, and opportunities from all over the world, which affects many Arctic Indigenous cultures and communities. Several other articles in this issue of Global Asia address geopolitical changes, population and demographic shifts and governance issues, all of which directly affect the issues outlined above.