Future historians will be very puzzled that a young American republic, barely 250 years old, believed that it could singlehandedly transform a 4,000-year-old civilization with a population four times its size.
divided on Xi’s leadership and his vast ambitions. Senior party members have been greatly troubled by Xi’s policy direction and angered by his endless demands for absolute loyalty. They fear for their own lives and the future livelihoods of their families.” if this is true, america’s strategy should be to deepen these Chinese divisions. instead, because america lacks a strategy toward China, the Trump administration has effectively enhanced Xi’s standing in China through the launch of the erratic trade war and, even more damagingly, by the detention in Canada of Meng Wanzhou, the daughter of the founder of Chinese telecom giant huawei and the company’s chief financial officer. Meng’s detention has strongly reinforced the solidarity of the Chinese regime because it recalls powerful memories of China’s “Century of humiliation,” when Western laws were applied on Chinese soil. Many Chinese leaders must have thought: what happens if my daughter is also detained by america?
Many americans may balk at the idea that Meng should be released. americans believe in the rule of law. anyone who breaks american domestic laws should be punished. i agree. Yet Meng committed no crimes on american soil. indeed, she didn’t violate any american domestic laws. She was caught by the “extraterritorial” application of american laws against iran. it’s a fact that america routinely makes exemptions from such extraterritorial laws. The Biden administration should give a quiet wink to the Canadian government to release her. This would serve america’s national interests. This is what geopolitical cunning is all about.
The third and most difficult step that the Biden administration will have to take is to develop a realistic understanding of the real strengths and weaknesses of its strategic adversary. indeed, this is the most important step in any strategic competition, as emphasized by Sun Tzu in his most important maxim: “know thyself, know thy enemy; fight a hundred battles, win a hundred battles.” in this context, “know thy enemy” means “know China.”
in trying to understand China, the Biden administration should bear in mind a key point made by one of america’s greatest strategic thinkers, george Kennan. he said that the outcome of any geopolitical contest would depend on the following: able to pose this question because the very idea that a communist-run China could enjoy greater “spiritual vitality” than the world’s greatest democracy is inconceivable to an american mind.
There’s no question that overall, america is still today a more successful society and ahead of China in many areas. This is why my most recent book, Has China Won?, begins with a fictional memo to Xi Jinping, emphasizing that China should never underestimate america. however, it would be an equally big mistake for america to underestimate China. Those americans who believed that american engagement with China would transform China were guilty of this. indeed, future historians will be very puzzled that a young american republic, barely 250 years old, believed that it could single-handedly transform a 4,000-year-old civilization with a population four times its size. Curiously, most americans are not even aware that this belief is somewhat arrogant.
arrogance inhibits understanding in other ways. Few americans are aware that for the Chinese people, especially for the bottom 50 percent, the past 40 years have been the best in the 4,000 years of Chinese history. The Stanford university psychologist, Jean Fan, has documented that “in contrast to america’s stagnation, China’s culture, self-concept and morale are being transformed at a rapid pace — mostly for the better.” The overall question of whether american or Chinese society is the stronger and more resilient is a massive one. it cannot be answered in a brief essay such as this one. This is why i had to write an entire book to discuss it fully. The sad reality is that most americans just don’t understand China, even though it has been around for more than four millennia. Most americans believe that the 1.4 billion Chinese people are unhappy. hence, they cannot even conceive of the realistic possibility that the Chinese people may be swimming happily in an ocean of Chinese norms
and values, which create both a sense of a wellordered moral society and psychological wellbeing. By historical standards, the vast masses of Chinese people have never been better off.
long-term strategy
The fourth step to take after developing a realistic understanding of China’s strengths and weaknesses is to work out a comprehensive long-term strategy to manage the competition with China. This will not be easy. Some past options are not available. Containment, for example, will not be possible. More countries trade more with China than with america. indeed, much more. nor can america assume military superiority, especially close to China’s shores. all the Pentagon war games show that american aircraft carriers and battleships are vulnerable to Chinese hypersonic missiles. Fortunately, the Mutually assured Destruction (MAD) doctrine will prevent all-out war between america and China.
The Biden administration has been wise in reaching out to allies and friends in formulating a new China policy. Many allies and friends, including Japan, india, the uk and australia, share american strategic concerns about the rise of Chinese power. They are worried. This is real. Yet none will join a containment policy. This is not just for economic reasons. all countries around China are asking a question that is unmentionable in american strategic circles: which economy will be bigger in a decade or two: america’s or China’s? Most realistic analysts expect the american economy to become number two within a decade or two. Surely, the strategic calculations of the whole world, including of america, will change when america’s economy goes from being no. 1 in the world to becoming no. 2. any serious strategic planner in america must consider this possibility. But only few brave souls dare discuss this publicly in america. it is politically taboo for any american politician to talk of this almost inevitable outcome: america could become no.2 in the world. This is another key reason why the Biden administration needs to carry out a massive strategic recalculation before proceeding full steam ahead with Trump’s policies.
The fifth and final step that the Biden administration needs to take may look simple: Stop insulting China (in the way Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo used to do). given the american propensity to pass judgment on other countries, this may be difficult. But the Biden administration should consider not insulting China for two reasons. First, even today, america is the only country that insults China. no other government in the world does so. in such a context, it is not China that will look isolated. america will. Second, the public insults of China feed an unconscious strain in the Western body politic that could seriously complicate Sino-american relations: the fear of the “yellow peril.” This fear has surfaced from time to time, contributing to the rise of anti-asian violence in america.
at the end of the day, what most of humanity would like to see is a rational understanding and a rational discourse between the world’s two leading powers, america and China. insults never help. one of the best definitions of a good diplomat is that he or she is someone who can tell you to go to hell in such a way that you feel you are going to enjoy the journey. Diplomacy has been around for several thousand years. it’s the best weapon the Biden administration can use to build a new relationship with China, with the right balance of competition and co-operation.
kishore Mahbubani is a distinguished fellow at the asia research institute, National university of singapore. he is the author of Has China Won? (Public affairs, 2020).