Iranians brace for US sanctions
IRANIANS were bracing on Monday for the return of United States sanctions against the backdrop of angry protests and a corruption crackdown that are roiling the embattled government of President Hassan Rouhani.
The country has seen days of sporadic protests and strikes in multiple towns and cities driven by concerns over water shortages, economy and wider anger at the political system.
Journalists reported a heavy buildup of riot police on Sunday night, including at least one armoured personnel carrier, in the town of Karaj, just west of Tehran, that has been a focal point of unrest.
The internet was cut off in the area – part of a concerted efforts to block reporting on the unrest which include severe restrictions for foreign journalists.
The US is set to reimpose sanctions on Tuesday following President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the 2015 nuclear deal in May.
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo vowed Sunday that the US would “enforce the sanctions” and that pressure on Tehran was meant to “push back against Iranian malign activity”.
The tensions have already fuelled a run on Iran’s currency, which has lost more than half its value since April, and exacerbated widespread concerns over high unemployment, inflation and the lack of reform.
Rouhani was due to give a televised address to the nation on Monday to outline plans for tackling the curren- cy decline and impact of sanctions.
His government unveiled new foreign exchange policies, allowing unlimited, tax-free currency and gold imports, and reopening exchange bureaus after a disastrous attempt to fix the value of the rial in April led to widespread black-market corruption.
Sanctions and talks
With senior religious authorities calling for a crackdown on graft, the judiciary said it had arrested the vice-governor of the central bank in charge of foreign exchange, Ahmad Araghchi, along with a government clerk and four currency brokers.
Sanctions are due to return in two phases on August 7 and November 5 – with the first targeting Iran’s access to US banknotes and key industries.
The second phase – blocking Iran’s oil sales is due to cause more damage, although several countries including China, India and Turkey have indicated they are not willing to entirely cut their Iranian energy purchases.
“This is just about Iranians’ dissat- isfaction with their own government, and the President is pretty clear, we want the Iranian people to have a strong voice in who their leadership will be,” Pompeo said.
After months of fierce rhetoric, Trump surprised observers when he offered to meet with Rouhani without preconditions.
That came only a few days after a bellicose exchange between the two presidents, with Rouhani warning of the “mother of all wars” and Trump responding with a Twitter tirade against Iran’s “DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE”.
Key Trump administration figures, including national security advisor John Bolton, have called for regime change in the past, although the official line is that Washington only wants a change in its “behaviour”.
“For Bolton and others, pressure is an end in and of itself,” said Suzanne Maloney, deputy director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.
“If it leads to a wholesale capitulation fine, if it leads to regime change, even better.”
Under pressure
There have been ongoing rumours that Trump and Rouhani could meet in New York later this month, where both are attending the UN General Assembly – though Rouhani reportedly rejected US overtures for a meeting at last year’s event.
Over the weekend Trump once again floated the idea of meeting, tweeting “I will meet, or not meet, it doesn’t matter – it is up to them!”
“Iran, and its economy, is going very bad, and fast!” he added.
Iran hawks believe pressure is showing results, pointing to a surprising lack of harassment by Iranian naval forces against American warships in the Gulf this year.
If Iran senses “American steel they back down, if they perceive American mush they push forward – and right now they perceive steel”, said Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank.