How Europe will choose its next generation of leaders

THIS week’s European parliamentar y elections will launch a scramble for t he continent’s top leadership jobs, but won’t decide the winners.

Unlike i n t he case of nationa l elections, t he part y wit h t he biggest number of seats after t he vote may not be named head of the EU executive.

Instead the new president of the European Commission will be nominated by the leaders of the 28 EU member states, after at least two summits.

The leaders may choose to ta ke into account the names chosen by the parliamentar y blocs as t heir so-ca lled “spit zenkandidaten” – or not.

In any case, the election seems likely to weaken the main groups in Strasbourg, and make it harder for t he centre-right EPP to push its choice.

Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel has said she will back EPP candidate Manfred Weber, but French President Emmanuel Macron opposes the whole process.

And whether Weber, another candidate or someone f rom outside t he election process is chosen will emerge only after closed-door polit ick ing.

This will begin two days after the first election result on Tuesday, when the leaders will hold a onenight dinner summit in Brussels.

Afterwards, host Donald Tusk – president of the EU Council – will craft their musings into a list of nominees to be hopefully approved in late June.

Candidates sidelined?

The leaders will choose a director of the European Centra l Bank, a head of foreign policy, speaker of parliament and presidents of Commission and Council.

Macron and indeed most of the other leaders are loath to cede the power granted them by the EU treaty to choose the top jobs.

But there is still one democratic lock – appointments must be ratified by parliament; at least 376 of the 751 members.

If the leaders agree on the names at their June 20 to 21 summit, the new parliament could vote in July.

When the outgoing Commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, was promoted in 2014, Germany, Britain, the Netherlands and Sweden objected.

But Germany’s Merkel backed down and allowed her fellow EPP member through after a media campaign accused her of “betraying democracy”.

Now, France’s Macron is the most stern opponent of the spitzenkandidat process, and he insists he will not back Weber however well the EPP polls.

While it is expected to remain the biggest single grouping, the EPP’s long dominance of the Brussels top job may be coming to an end.

The centre-right group has been in a marriage of convenience with the centre-left Socialists and Democrats to share the posts.

But – with populist eurosceptics, Greens and liberal centrists expected to make gains – the main parties will not have a working majority.

This will oblige them to look for coalitions, and could leave the Greens or the liberal group in a position to play kingmaker.

If parliament votes to confirm a new head of the EU Commission in mid-July, he or she will then put together a team of commissioners.

These will be given confirmation hearings, and then the parliament’s session in October will vote to confirm and they start work in November.

Italian trio

Three influential Italians will also be replaced this year, adding their posts to the mix when the horsetrading begins.

The director of the Frankfurtbased European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, is due to move on, creating a prized opening.

The outgoing speaker of the Italian parliament is Antonio Tajani and the EU High Representative for foreign policy is Federica Mogherini.

These t hree posts are t he gift of the leaders, and some will be traded, but t here are certain politica l conditions.

The outgoing president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has made it clear he expects at least one to go to a woman. And smaller countries and newer members will want to see geographical diversity respected.