BEST CITIES FOW WORK IN B.C.
To mark the fifth anniversary of our annual report on WHERE TO WORK NOW, we’ve expanded and revamped the list
EXCLUSIVE SURVEY!
46 CITIES RANKED
IN OUR FIFTH ANNUAL RANKING OF B.C.'S BEST CITIES FOR WORK, WE HAVE A FORMER NO. 1 BACK IN THE TOP SPOT, A HANDFUL OF RELIABLE CONTENDERS AND A LIVELY SHAKEUP OF THE REST. THIS YEAR'S LIST FEATURES A RETUNED METHODOLOGY, THREE NEW INDICATORS AND AN EXPANDED LIST OF 46 COMMUNITIES THAT ADDS SEVERAL CHALLENGERS
The Sea-to-sky Corridor is the place to be in 2019, while the Northeast has fallen out of the top three for the first time since our inaugural 2015 ranking of the province’s best cities for work—but it may yet have a few surprises in store. With a provincial economy firing on all cylinders the past few years and a tightening labour market putting upward pressure on incomes, it’s a good time to be working just about anywhere in B.C., regardless of where your community ranks. As the economy cruises along, several cities have climbed above 10,000 in population and onto this year’s list, Whistler, Sechelt and Nelson among them.
In our fifth annual Best Cities for Work in B.C., we’ve again worked closely with research partner Environics Analytics to determine the economic outlook for dozens of communities, with an eye on the year ahead. We carried over seven indicators from the 2018 survey: average household income, household income for primary earners under age 35, five-year income growth, average household spending on recreation, average shelter costs, five-year population growth and unemployment rate. We’ve also
added three new ones: average commute time, average value of primary real estate and housing starts per 10,000 residents.
In the process, we’ve fine-tuned our methodology, resulting in a shift of weighting from so-called lagging economic indicators, such as income growth, to more forward-looking or leading indicators like housing starts. This has also struck a better balance between income-related indicators, expense-related indicators and those that signal a city’s broader economic health.
Squamish takes the top spot for the second time in three years, showcasing its economic staying power. Neighbouring Whistler makes a strong debut at No. 2, and the nearby District of North Vancouver rounds out the top three.
The Sea-to-sky Corridor owes its strength to several factors, including fast-rising incomes, generous spending on recreation and booming population growth. Squamish edges out Whistler thanks to one of the province’s busiest home construction markets.
For this year’s ranking, we’ve taken homebuilding activity into account to provide a more forward-looking view of a community’s economic fitness. As a leading economic indicator, housing starts reflect investor confidence in a local market and imply anticipated population growth, job growth in construction and development-related industries, and increased retail sales—you have to fill those homes with something.
UPS AND DOWNS
After two years in the top three, the 2018 leaders, Fort St. John and Dawson Creek, experienced
notable drops. Incomes remain strong in the Northeast, but the unemployment rate—although still healthy—is outperformed by much of the province. Population growth and housing starts have also cooled, perhaps because persistently low fossil fuel prices are finally taking their toll. But the relative decline of these communities may speak more to the economic uptick elsewhere in the province than their own shortcomings.
The District of North Vancouver can attribute its top-three showing to having the highest household income, correspondingly strong household spending on recreation, solid housing starts numbers and—along with the rest of Metro Vancouver—one of the tightest unemployment rates in B.C.
This year saw a notable shakeup in the performance of other Metro Vancouver munici- palities. Township of Langley, City of Langley, City of North Vancouver, Maple Ridge, Coquitlam, Surrey and Richmond all rose, while Delta, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Burnaby and New Westminster saw declines. Those that climbed generally had higher incomes, income growth, recreational spending and home construction activity in 2018.
Vancouver also plunged this year, from No. 9 to No. 31. High housing costs, longer commute times and mediocre incomes for people under age 35 brought down its score.
THE HOUSING FACTOR
We took residential real estate prices into account for the first time, and many of this year’s top performers scored well despite their pricey
FORT ST. JOHN AND DAWSON CREEK EXPERIENCED NOTABLE DROPS. INCOMES REMAIN STRONG IN THE NORTHEAST, BUT THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE–ALTHOUGH STILL HEALTHY–IS OUTPERFORMED BY MUCH OF THE PROVINCE
property markets. For existing homeowners, a rise in real estate values has yielded big financial gains, but not without a cost, notes Isanna Biglands, a Toronto-based research associate with Environics Analytics.
“With the combined effect of rising interest rates, mortgage and interest payments could be pinching the wallets of many households in British Columbia,” Biglands says. “So although households have never been richer in terms of their assets, these rising interest rates put increased pressure on discretionary spending for households.”
If you don’t already own a home, getting established in a community with costly real estate poses that much more of a financial challenge. That’s why we added a new indicator to supplement the average-shelter-spending metric from previous years, which includes data for households that have already paid off their mortgages and so doesn’t reflect true shelter costs if purchasing in 2019.
Despite solid population growth, the Fraser Valley communities of Abbotsford, Chilliwack and Mission took a tumble in this year’s ranking. Their weaknesses: below-average performances for income, cost of housing, commute times, housing starts and unemployment rate.
However, Victoria suffered the biggest fall, dragged down by low average incomes, including the least for residents under age 35 of any city on the list. One silver lining: with the province’s lowest unemployment rate, it can look forward to higher incomes. The drastic change in Victoria’s fortunes also owes something to another adjustment to this year’s methodology that breaks the Capital Region into its constituent municipalities. This gave greater representation to other southern Vancouver Island municipalities while filtering out some of the region’s higher-income bedroom communities at Victoria’s expense.
On a more positive note, the Cariboo made conspicuous gains, with Prince George and
VICTORIA SUFFERED THE BIGGEST FALL, DRAGGED DOWN BY LOW AVERAGE INCOMES, INCLUDING THE LEAST FOR RESIDENTS UNDER AGE 35 OF ANY CITY ON THE LIST
Quesnel benefiting from affordable housing markets, short commute times and solid unemployment figures.
Parksville and Salmon Arm made the largest jumps—the former assisted by a low unemployment rate and high average incomes for under-35 earners and the latter by robust income growth, affordable housing and a short commute.
The new commute-time indicator puts greater emphasis on a community’s quality of life. “People have more opportunity to choose their mode of transportation the closer they live to their work,” Biglands explains. “There is also an opportunity cost for the time spent commuting.” As she puts it: “With less time spent commuting, households can use that time as they please. This can lead to more satisfaction as work and home life are better balanced.”
TOMORROW NEVER KNOWS
Although the 2019 outlook for B.C. is positive, economists expect a moderation from the pace of recent years, with TD Economics forecasting a decline in real gross domestic product to 1.9 percent in 2019, from 2017’s 3.9 percent and 2018’s forecasted 2.4 percent. Still, a few key factors could significantly affect B.C. communities in 2019 and the years ahead, including the housing market, oil and gas industry, and global economy.
Even with property sales declining in 2018 after the introduction of mortgage stresstesting and interest rate hikes, housing in much of B.C. remains unaffordable. But where the market goes now is anybody’s guess as prices stay untethered from local incomes.
In Metro Vancouver, a modest price correc-
IN METRO VANCOUVER, A MODEST PRICE CORRECTION COULD MAKE IT EASIER FOR COMPANIES TO LURE AND RETAIN SKILLED LABOUR, AND ATTRACT INVESTMENT. CONVERSELY, CONTINUALLY RISING PRICES MAY ACCELERATE THE ECONOMIC AND POPULATION GROWTH SEEN IN CITIES SUCH AS KELOWNA AND VICTORIA IN RECENT YEARS