Bloomberg Businessweek (North America)
�Fabiola Moura, Gerson Freitas Jr., Anna Edgerton, Arnaldo Galvao, and Cristiane Lucchesi
High-end Overlap
in the debate over the charges against Rousseff (using state-run banks to cover up a budget gap, an alleged breach of a fiscal responsibility law), they’ve bemoaned the lack of clear governmental policies. Bureaucrats have been sitting on their hands as Rousseff’s government and the country’s lawmakers ran from ring to ring in the impeachment circus. “If you hear absolutely nothing from the president regarding what concerns us the most, which is a year and a half of the economy at a halt, it becomes clear that she has no solution to present to us,” says Antônio Emílio Fugazza, chief financial officer at homebuilder Eztec Empreendimentos e Participações.
At the top of the corporate list of concerns are tax and labor reforms that executives say will help them hire and invest more. There are also more specific measures that affect industries from telecom to auto manufacturing. Oi, the struggling phone carrier, has been waiting for months for an overhaul in regulation that would free it from investing in outdated, moneylosing fixed phone lines. The proposal has been stuck between the communications ministry and Anatel, the industry’s governing body, which says it needs more study.
Automakers saw car sales fall about 28 percent for the first four months of 2016 from a year earlier, on top of a 27 percent full-year drop in 2015. They’ve been waiting since last year for the government to sign a plan to give consumers incentives such as rebates to upgrade their vehicles.
If Temer does step into a caretaker president role, his long experience in Brasília should ensure he has the clout to quickly address the crisis of economic growth, according to Antônio Delfim Netto, a former finance minister and longtime economic adviser to top Brazilian politicians. The vice president is expected to enact more business-friendly policies than Rousseff, whose Workers’ Party has resisted measures that could sacrifice protections for labor. Temer is likely to replace current Finance Minister Nelson Barbosa, the third such change in the post in 18 months. “The people that are coming in know what needs to be done, and they know it needs to be done quickly,” says Paulo Bilyk, chief investment officer at Rio Bravo Investimentos.
Sérgio Fischer, chief executive officer of Log Commercial Properties, a real estate company based in Belo Horizonte, says there are indications that business will pick up once Temer steps in. “I’m already feeling it,” he says. “We’ve been getting requests, big ones, from companies who are already considering a better scenario in the future.”
Once her impeachment trial begins, Rousseff must temporarily step down. The Senate has almost six months to make a final ruling. If a two-thirds majority votes against her, Temer would continue as president until 2018.
For now, Temer says he wants to use his interim mandate to ease rules on government procurement and give the private sector a bigger role in the oil industry. His plans to eliminate a third of ministries are being scaled back, and tax increases have been ruled out for the time being, according to two Temer aides, who asked not to be identified because the discussions aren’t public.
Brazil will eventually need to deal with longer-term structural issues. Its corporate tax rate is 34 percent, among the highest in the world. And its labor laws are notoriously restrictive, with enforced working hour limits and a 30 percent extra payment for vacation time. “It stifles any entrepreneurship,” says Fernando Simões, CEO of JSL, a cargo transportation and logistics company. “It ends up hurting the worker himself, since you think twice about hiring anybody.”
Temer has other challenges. He’s almost as unpopular with the masses as Rousseff, and the scandal that’s sinking her administration over Petrobras, the national oil company, has ensnared some of his allies. If his reforms are seen as harmful to the poor, he may provoke demonstrations and protests.
The bottom line Companies have been stalled as the Rousseff impeachment paralyzes the Brazilian government and important reforms.
30 percent consider BMW, and about 20 percent look at Audi and Mercedes models, while 12 percent shop Porsche, says Edmunds. Compare that with the fewer than 6 percent of Tesla buyers who consider a Dodge, and it’s clear German brands are most vulnerable to customer defections as Tesla grows.
Executives at rival carmakers privately squawk about Tesla’s poor track record of manufacturing delays and persistent financial losses. Yet they can’t ignore that Musk’s products are exciting consumer passions in a way that incumbent automakers haven’t for decades. “The innovation hat is going to move to a new place,” says Håkan Samuelsson, CEO of Volvo Cars. “The decisive factor is what’s happening inside people’s heads,” says Jürgen Pieper, an analyst at Bankhaus Metzler. “Many see in Tesla the innovation they’re missing from the Germans.”
The Tesla advances and the threat of Apple entering the car business have led German brands to show lots of electric concept vehicles recently. But these cars are years away, while Tesla plans to start delivering the
Share of Tesla shoppers in March who also looked at these brands
BMW Toyota Audi Honda Mercedes-benz Ford Lexus Chevrolet Nissan Porsche Subaru Mazda Acura Hyundai Volkswagen Volvo Kia Cadillac Jeep Infiniti Land Rover Jaguar Dodge Buick Lincoln The bottom line Tesla’s Model 3 could draw sales from German luxury carmakers’ bread-and-butter vehicles, prompting price cuts.