The Plane Truth
Air travel is increasingly in demand, but a backlog in aircraft deliveries is hindering long-term growth
ACCORDING TO THE latest projections by Cirium, global air traffic is projected to grow by 14 percent in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic numbers by six percent. However, global capacity is predicted to increase by only 12 percent annually, and new aircraft deliveries face significant challenges.
Airlines will face a capacity crunch as there are limitations on delivering new aircraft from Airbus and Boeing. This trend is expected to continue into the next decade, posing a significant challenge for airlines as they strive to meet the growing demand for air travel, leading to higher ticket prices and reduced options for travelers in the coming years.
“The demand trajectory is still a steady climb,” said Rob Morris, global head of consultancy. During Cirium’s 2024 Market Outlook, he said aircraft supply continues to grow but headwinds from manufacturing issues are expected to create a significant lag in deliveries for an extended period. “Supply is a slam dunk. Delivery is the issue,” he said.
Boeing and Airbus are still facing delivery difficulties, which will cause a decrease in new aircraft volumes. The backlog for Boeing’s 737 MAX family is causing a slowdown in the delivery of single-aisle aircraft, with only 1,400 out of more than 6,200 orders delivered as of December. After deliveries were stalled for nearly 20 months after two fatal crashes, the MAX returned to service in 2020, and Boeing announced plans to ramp up production. However, several quality-control problems, like the blowout of a door plug aboard an Alaska Airlines 737 MAX 9, prompted the grounding of that variant while the FAA conducted inspections.
“Let me be clear: This won’t be back to business as usual for Boeing,” said FAA Administrator Michael Whitaker. “We will not agree to any request from Boeing for an expansion in production or approve additional production lines for the 737 MAX until we are satisfied that the quality-control issues uncovered during this process are resolved.”
Meanwhile, Airbus has pulled into the lead in the single-aisle race, with orders for the A320neo family topping out at more than 10,000, of which 3,200 have been delivered.
Airbus had a slow start to 2023 with shortages. 2024 deliveries have increased by 50 percent, but Reuters reports that more delays are expected due to ongoing supply-chain problems.