GOP primaries to test Romney’s durability
GOP leadership hopeful leads in next two primaries
Through much of his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, Mitt Romney has treated his GOP rivals more like pesky mosquitoes than serious political opponents. He’s ignored them as much as possible and felt compelled to swat at them only when they tried to bite — which hasn’t been all that often. But Romney is about to get swarmed.
Amid new polls friday showing him with wide leads in both New Hampshire and South Carolina, Romney is girding for an onslaught in two weekend debates that will test his durability as the Republican front-runner.
“Considering that Romney is over 40 per cent in New Hampshire, and none of the others has broken 20 per cent, the obvious thing to do is gang up on him,” says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
For all of the post-iowa buzz around Rick Santorum’s emergence as the leading conservative in the GOP race, Romney has had more to smile about after his razor-thin victory in the Hawkeye state.
A Rasmussen poll Friday shows Romney has solidified his advantage in New Hampshire, with 42 per cent support before the Granite state’s primary on Tuesday. He leads Texas congressman Ron Paul by 24 percentage points and Santorum by 29. The better news for Romney is a new CNN/TIME magazine poll indicating 37 per cent support in South Carolina, where he has the endorsement of Gov. Nikki Haley but has historically faced questions about his conservative values and Mormon faith. Romney’s closest challenger in South Carolina, which holds its primary Jan. 21, is Santorum, with 19 per cent. The results are disheartening for the GOP’S “not Mitt Romney” candidates, who face the twin challenges of trying to blunt the former Massachusetts governor’s momentum while at the same time scrapping with each other to become the chief conservative alternative.
That “desperation dynamic” could produce more-than-the-usual fireworks in the New Hampshire debates tonight on ABC News and
He’s going to get his licks in while he can. And, actually, that’s the only way he could rise like Phoenix from the ashes, by bringing down Romney
LARRY SABATO
ABOUT
GINGRICH
Sunday morning on NBC’S Meet the Press.
Here’s a look at what each of the remaining Republicans needs to achieve, and avoid:
Mitt romney. That silver-haired, portly fellow lunging at Romney’s throat with fangs bared is Newt Gingrich, who has adopted the wounded-dog strategy after his fourth-place Iowa finish. That’s unfortunate for Romney, who has preferred to focus on President Barack Obama while political action committees friendly to him do the dirty work of attacking others. The pro-romney “super PAC” Restore Our Future on Friday announced new anti-gingrich ads in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Gingrich relishes a good scrap, but Romney — in the few heated moments he’s had during past debates — has been uncomfortable off script. Remember when he challenged Rick Perry to a $10,000 bet? He needs to remain above the fray.
Rick Santorum. The good news for the former two-term Pennsylvania senator is that he has momentum, bumping into double digits in New Hampshire and South Carolina polls. The bad news? He’s got little time to close the gap on Romney in New Hampshire. “Santorum has the ability to ‘speak Northeastern’ since he represented Pennsylvania, but his mind must already be on South Carolina in part,” Sabato says. That could tempt Santorum to abandon the populist jobs rhetoric he adopted after Iowa and focus instead on wooing socially conservative South Carolinians. If he talks more about abortion and gay rights than working-class woes, he’ll risk limiting his potential to grow in later primaries.
Ron Paul. There’s a natural constituency in “live free or die” New Hampshire for Paul’s libertarianism. But he’s playing for second place and a ticket to compete in South Carolina. Paul must decide whether to go after Romney in the debates, or look to beat down Santorum and Gingrich.
Newt Gingrich. The former speaker, at this point, has nothing to lose by staying negative. His support in South Carolina, where he led in polls before Christmas, has fallen off a cliff. So all he’s got left is to engage in some score settling with Romney. “No one has ever accused Newt of being dumb. I suspect he already knows he’s not going to be the nominee in the end,” Sabato says. “He’s going to get his licks in while he can. And, actually, that’s the only way he could rise like Phoenix from the ashes, by bringing down Romney.”
Rick Perry. First, the Texas governor has to explain why he’s still in the race at all. After finishing fifth in Iowa, he tucked tail and scooted back to the Lone Star State to regroup. Perry’s campaign is up with new ads in south carolina touting his service as an air force pilot, his hardscrabble Texas upbringing and his religious faith. That’s all good in a Bible Belt state with a large military population. But he needs to do more than introduce himself with upbeat biographical ads. At five per cent in South Carolina polls, Perry needs to emphasize his executive experience and highlight Santorum’s lack of it.
Jon Huntsman. The former Utah governor’s only shot at keeping his campaign alive is a Top 3 finish in New Hampshire. He’s camped out there for months, the same way Santorum did in Iowa. Huntsman’s conservative economic record in Utah and more moderate social policy views should play well in New Hampshire, but there’s scant evidence he’s caught on. He needs the other five candidates to get caught in pre-debate snowstorms. “Huntsman has run a terrible, ill-defined campaign of mixed messages,” Sabato says, “and he is just not what Republicans are seeking this year.”