Shell targeting 25% increase in production

Ambitious new growth plans from Royal dutchshell failed to impress investors and analysts Thursday who fretted that disappointing fourth-quarter and 2011 results pointed to ever-reducing returns from the proposed new investments.

Europe’s largest oil company by market capitalization said it was targeting a 50 per cent rise in cash flow and a 25 per cent rise in oil and gas production in coming years.

However, this expansion will require higher investment, which meant Shell was only able to offer a modest increase in its dividend.

Analysts at Investec said they were concerned about Shell’s ever-rising investment expenditure, which they feared meant the company was spending “more for less.”

“We expect to see material downgrades to the consensus FY2012/13 earnings numbers,” they wrote in a research note.

Analysts at Citigroup said the company needed to convince investors it could invest money more profitably than rivals to justify the outperformance in its shares compared with rivals in the past 18 months.

“The new medium-term strategy unveiled today fails to offer that differentiated story,” they said.

Shell’s planned return to strong production growth follows a long fallow period. Apart from a five per cent rise in 2010, the group’s production has fallen every year since 2002. “Oil and gas production should average some four million boe/d (barrels of oil equivalent per day) in 2017-18,” the company said in a statement.

Production averaged 3.215 million boe/d in 2011, a three per cent drop on 2010.

Capital investment expenditure will rise to $32-$33 billion this year from $31.5 billion last year, Shell said.

Analysts had previously predicted that capex would fall, as Shell completed big new projects such as the pearl gasto-liquids plant in Qatar, which will push output higher.

The high capital being invested is one reason Shell’s return on average capital employed (ROACE) failed to sparkle, at 15.9 per cent, compared with levels above 20 per cent a few years ago when oil prices were considerably lower.

Similarly, in spite of a record average Brent crude price of $111/barrel in 2011, the full year current cost of supply (CCS) net income of $28.6 billion still lagged Shell’s earnings high of $31.4 billion in 2008 when Brent was under $100/barrel.

Chief financial officer Simon Henry said he expected the return on capital employed to rise in coming years and that all the projects Shell was invested in offered “robust” returns. However, he did not commit to returning to the previous ROACE levels.

Rivals also appear to be struggling with the same problem. Chevron said its ROACE was 20 per cent lower in 2011 than in 2008.