Rivals widen lead on PCS

Wildrose wins over 42% of decided voters, new poll says

Anew poll suggests Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith is now positioned as the clear front-runner in the race to become Alberta’s next premier.

Since the writ was dropped three weeks ago, the Wildrose has siphoned support from all other parties and dramatically increased its share of the decided vote in both urban and rural areas.

The Leger Marketing survey, commissioned by the Calgary Herald and the Edmonton Journal, suggests 42 per cent of decided voters will cast ballots for Wildrose, up from 33 per cent at the start of the campaign.

The Progressive Conservatives have slipped to 36 per cent from 37 per cent during the same time.

The NDP sits at 10 per cent support across the province, while the Liberals trail at nine per cent backing and the Alberta Party is at two per cent.

The Wildrose surge is happening across the province, with its share of the decided vote rising to 33 per cent in Edmonton (up from 23 per cent), 43 per cent in Calgary (up from 35), and 49 per cent in rural Alberta (up from 41).

“The Wildrose has been very effective at getting their message out . . . They’ve really gone from unknown to first place,” Leger vice-president Ian Large said. “We don’t see upstart or very young parties be this successful very often.”

Nearly one in five voters remain undecided — 17.8 per cent — a number Large said is virtually unheard of this late in an election campaign.

“They will carry the day if they come to the polls in good numbers. Everybody is expecting higher voter turnout,” Large said. “This could make election day very, very interesting.”

The poll shows more undecided voters are leaning toward Redford (20 per cent) than to Smith (14 per cent).

The telephone survey of 1,200 eligible voters was taken between April 13 and April 16.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error for regional breakdowns is slightly higher: 4.6 percentage points in Calgary and Edmonton, and 5.7 percentage points in the rest of Alberta.

Support for the Alberta Liberals has dropped slightly across the province. In Edmonton, support among decided voters has dropped to 12 from 16 per cent; in Calgary, support now sits at nine per cent. Support in the rest of Alberta stayed the same at eight per cent.

The NDP is holding steady in Edmonton, with 17 per cent of decided voters indicating they will vote for a New Democrat. Support for the party has slipped to five per cent in Calgary (from eight per cent) and remained the same in the rest of Alberta at eight per cent.

Support for the Alberta party continues to hover around two to three per cent of decided voters.

Grant Macewan University political scientist Chaldeans Mensah said the poll clearly shows Smith is consolidating her support, but the campaign is still unfolding and recent developments might undermine the Wildrose ascendance.

On Sunday, Wildrose candidate Alan Hunsperger revealed he believes homosexuals will suffer for eternity in a “lake of fire.” On Monday, Smith said she isn’t convinced climate change is real.

And on Tuesday, it was revealed that Calgary candidate Ron Leech said last weekend he believes he has an electoral advantage because he is white.

“This is not the type of stuff that you want headed into the late stages of a campaign,” Mensah said. “I think the recent developments have really blown everything up, it has reshaped the campaign, and brought in some of the weaknesses of the Wildrose.

“The question is, will these developments change the preferences of Albertans? I doubt that the people who have made up their minds or have grievances against the Tory party will switch, but those who have been sitting on the sidelines may strategically switch to prevent the Wildrose from taking power. I believe it’s shaping up to really provide us with an unpredictable outcome.”

The poll raises the possibility that Albertans could elect a minority government, leading to speculation about who would hold the balance of power.

Speaking to the Edmonton Journal’s editorial board Tuesday, Liberal Leader Raj Sherman said a minority government with PCS or Wildrose fighting for control would be make for “an absolutely ridicu- lous legislature.”

“It does not make sense to have a right-wing governing party, and a corrupt and incompetent right-wing PC opposition questioning them,” he said, casting the Liberals as the “true centrist party.”

Tory campaign strategist Stephen Carter said he wasn’t worried about the prospect of a minority government. “We’re going to win a majority government,” he said.

He suggested the province would make do with a minority government in the unlikely scenario one occurs. “The people elect the government the people want.”

Three in four Albertans said they watched or followed coverage of leaders’ debates, and roughly half said the debates influenced their opinions.

Alberta has recorded the lowest voter turnout in the country, but 88 per cent of respondents said they are extremely or very likely to vote in the election on April 23, while another eight per cent say they’re somewhat likely.