Decision day arrives
High turnout expected today after fierce campaign
After a hotly contested four-week campaign, Alberta voters are expected to turn out in force today for the conclusion of the provincial election, with Calgary viewed as a critical battleground.
The last time Albertans went to the polls in 2008 to choose their provincial government, voter turnout sank to a record low of 40.6 per cent.
But after a hard-fought race in 2012 that has received national — and international — attention over the past month, experts are predicting a more robust display at the polls.
“By every theory you can think of, turnout should be up,” said Harold Jansen, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge and an expert in Canadian voter turnout.
“Voter turnout is also supposed to go up when it’s more competitive — and we haven’t seen a competitive election like this since 1993.
“I can’t recall the last election when I’ve seen so many people talking about it and interested in it.”
A spokesman with Elections Alberta said the office would not be able to provide a tally of voters at advance polls until all the ballots are counted this evening.
But anecdotal accounts from party officials and political observers suggest big crowds have already turned out to vote in Calgary.
One of the key factors today will be how well the various parties are able to get out their vote — whether it’s simply reminding people to cast a ballot or having volunteers provide rides to polling stations.
“Those things are important,” Jansen said. “Even if it only makes a couple hundred votes difference, that can be the difference between a seat and not a seat.”
On Sunday, political leaders of all stripes were rallying supporters for the last big push before today’s election, in which Albertans will decide whether to re-elect the long-ruling Progressive Conservatives or opt for a new government in the front-running Wildrose party.
Pollsters and politicians say nothing is guaranteed.
“A high undecided, combined with a high voter turnout, suggests that nobody can be certain of what the outcome is going to be,” said pollster Ian Large of Leger Marketing.
“There is the possibility for those big blocks of undecided voters to step up and change the outcome. We know in many of the races, both (in Edmonton) and Calgary, that the races could be down to a few hundred votes . . . So that undecided vote could sway the outcome enormously.”
Observers anticipate many of Calgary’s 25 races will be highly competitive, and the outcome in those ridings could be critical in deciding which party forms the next government.
“This is the heartland of the Tories,” said David Taras, a political analyst at Mount Royal University. “And you’ve got to take the fortress.”
On Sunday, the party leaders met with candidates, supporters and potential voters in a bid to bolster their election day numbers.
“It’s up to Albertans to decide which direction they want to go,” Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith told reporters Sunday after a rally in northwest Calgary.
“We have, I think, identified about 23 ridings where we know it’s a real fight. That’s why I’ve been spending so much time over the last two days stopping in and talking to candidates, talking to their campaign teams, telling them to get out, because every single vote is going to count.”
Progressive Conservative Leader Alison Redford made a number of whistle-stops at the campaign offices of Tory candidates in Calgary on Sunday. Redford expects a high turnout at the polls today.
“There are a lot of people in this province right now that I’ve heard have said that they know this election matters, that they may not have been very politically active before but they want to be now,” she said. “And that’s a wonderful thing.”
On Sunday, both parties released a tally and names of campaign contributors. Wildrose said it has collected nearly $2.4 million in donations during the four-week race, while the PCS reported a total of $1.8 million over the first three-and-half weeks.
In Edmonton, Liberal Leader Raj Sherman wouldn’t predict how many seats his party will end up with after the election, but argued a vote split between the Tories and Wildrose will benefit his members.
“For us, with the splits they’re having on the far right, that’s going to work out great,” said Sherman, while wearing a navy apron and handing out hotdogs to party volunteers. Many more seats come into play for the Alberta Liberals in every corner of this province.”
Speaking in the same city on Sunday, NDP Leader Brian Mason said his party has concentrated its campaign in key ridings, and feels they are in a “very good” position.
“I’ve been through three (provincial) elections and I’ve never had a situation where we are driving in our van and having people honk and wave. It’s not because we cut them off,” he said. “It’s friendly.”
Alberta Party Leader Glenn Taylor, who spent the day campaigning in his West Yellowhead riding, said in an interview he hopes citizens will vote for the best candidates, not only the party they represent.
“Vote for the person that you think will best represent your constituency, your values, your community,” Taylor said.