Alberta’s political future rests in hands of voters

And now, an entire province holds its breath.

The tension is acute for party people and legions of other Albertans who usually don’t care much about politics.

One friend felt a rush of relief after dropping his ballot into the box at an advance poll Saturday.

“I thought, ‘finally, I’m done with it,’ ” said teacher Greg Wesley.

Voter turnout is likely to be huge, far higher than the dismal 40.6 per cent recorded when ex-premier Ed Stelmach won his big majority on March 3, 2008.

Stelmach wasn’t very concerned at the time. “If you look at history,” he said, “the highest voter turnout is when people come to kick a government out.”

We’ll soon see if Stelmach’s insight leads to a mighty kick at his own party.

PC campaigners choose to believe the big advance turnouts mean voters frightened by Wildrose are flocking back to them.

The Wildrosers are just as convinced that high interest means exactly what Stelmach predicted; Armageddon for the government.

During the campaign, PC hopes and dreams have shrivelled to the point where most loyalists would be pleased just to hold the government.

They would settle for a small majority, or live with a minority, hoping to reinvent themselves later.

For Wildrose, the dreams expanded so suddenly they’ll be disappointed not to win. Sooner than expected, they would face the myriad problems of daily government.

On the Liberal side, the question is whether the party will capture more than a few seats.

Despite Leader Raj Sherman’s high-octane personal campaign, the war on the right has sucked significant Liberal support toward Alison Redford’s PCS.

Brian Mason’s NDP — like the Liberals — hopes to hold the balance of power in a minority government.

Their chances might be more realistic, because NDP support is so concentrated in pockets of Edmonton.

After a campaign so emotional and volatile, all minority-majority combinations seem plausible.

Whatever happens, there’s no doubt this is the most monumental choice Albertans have faced since Peter Lougheed’s PCS won in 1971.

We have to go even further back, to the first Social Credit victory in 1935, to find an election of parallel significance.

But neither of those ancient examples saw anything like the wild charges and character assassinations so common in this campaign.

One reason for the vitriol, it seems to me, is that four decades of suppressed political energy, suddenly uncorked, escaped in one month.

Other provinces have cultural safety valves that blow a government out of office every two or three elections.

Not Albertans; we love our majorities.

Voters tend to hand their trust to one party, and then leave the government alone to run the place for decades.

A couple of outcomes are dead certain after the voting.

First, the PCS’ dominance of every corner of Alberta’s political landscape will finally end.

Even if the government is returned tonight, this will no longer be a monopoly province.

Second, the battle for control of the conservative movement won’t stop with the election.

The conflict could go on for years, if the federal split between Reform and PCS is any example.

Alberta’s next 41-year war starts Tuesday morning. The only question is who has the most troops.