Election reveals geographic divisions

Wildrose dominant in rural south

Wildrose green cut a large swath across the southern half of the province in Monday’s election, instantly transforming traditional Tory blue bedrock into fertile ground for the Official Opposition.

But it also created a clear geographic divide, with Wildrose failing to make inroads into Alberta’s two major cities. It captured just a single riding north of Ponoka.

With Wildrose dominance largely restricted to one region of the province — and primarily rural jurisdictions — analysts say it may be more difficult for the party to expand its appeal in other areas.

“It’s a real challenge for them,” said Peter Mccormick, a political scientist at the University of Lethbridge.

“It will be hard for them not to be constantly championing the interests of outside-the-major-cities Alberta against the major cities, and yet then trying to appeal to the major cities in the next election.”

But Wildrose Leader Danielle Smith, who was born and raised in Calgary, has no concerns with the geography of the party’s 17 seats. The party will speak for all Albertans on issues that matter, Smith added.

“The issues in rural Alberta, by and large, are the same as the ones in urban,” Smith told the Herald.

“They are concerned about the budget deficit, they are concerned about access to health care, they are concerned about accountability. I believe that those issues ... cross north-south lines, they cross rural-urban lines.”

After the dust settled on a raucous 28-day election contest, Wildrose found themselves holding 17 seats in the legislature — the most any opposition party has won since the 1997 provincial election campaign.

But Wildrose failed to add to its ranks in Calgary — winning only two ridings — and was shut out in Edmonton. The only seat the party captured north of Ponoka was Lac La Biche-st. Paul-two Hills.

Mccormick said one of the key factors in Wildrose’s success in rural southern Alberta is the anger generated by the Tory government’s controversial land-use legislation.

It “really had a lot of farmers and ranchers up in arms,” Mccormick said. “I heard a lot of people talking about it — and these are people who aren’t normally political. So, I think that’s what created the opportunity for Wildrose to appeal.”

But because Wildrose wasn’t able to win more legislative seats in urban centres, particularly Calgary, it risks being viewed as a regional party instead of a little Alberta, he said.

One Wildrose candidate to lose in the city on Monday was Calgary-glenmore incumbent Paul Hinman, the party’s for- mer leader.

When asked why the party did so well in the south and struggled elsewhere, he points a finger at the Progressive Conservative campaign.

Hinman said the PCS’ “fear-and-smear” attacks didn’t deter voters in southern Alberta because they were familiar with Wildrose and weren’t concerned by the Tory barbs.

“In other places, we were newer, we were not really branded, people didn’t really know who we were,” Hinman said. “That fear-and-smear campaign put enough fear into people that they strategically voted thinking they were protecting themselves.”

However, he believes there’s lots of potential for Wildrose to grow, pointing to races in urban areas where his party’s candidates narrowly lost.

“How many seats did we lose here in Calgary by what margin?” Hinman said in an interview. “We blew away any of the old Liberal stats.”

There were several tight races in Calgary as Wildrose garnered 36 per cent of the vote in the city, while the PCS attracted 46 per cent.

But David Taras, a political analyst at Mount Royal University, said while Wildrose was competitive in Calgary this election, there’s no guarantee that will be the case when the next election rolls around.

“Sometimes in history, the great moment never repeats itself again because things move on,” said Taras, noting the strength Wildrose had been showing in opinion polls.

“How do they get another great moment and what do they have to do to get there?”

After Monday’s vote, it’s not clear who can knock the Progressive Conservatives out of the cities, he said.

“Things could have been different but the last week was horrible,” added Taras, pointing to the inflammatory comments of a pair of Wildrose candidates and opponents’ attacks on what was branded the right-wing party’s “firewall” policies.

But Smith isn’t putting any limits on how much or where Wildrose will grow in the future. The party will break through in cities — and succeed in other areas across the province — because of the quality of the work they will do in the coming months and years, she said.

“As we start bringing forward these issues, bringing forward private members’ bills, holding the government to account in the legislature, they will get to know some of the faces of our party,” Smith said.

“I don’t think that happened in the campaign . . . We’ve got some fantastic talent.”

Things could have been different but the last week was horrible.

DAVID TARAS, POLITICAL ANALYST