Caution gleaned from 1998 draft
Finally, a chance to use the new company time machine. We’ll take off in a minute.
But first, let’s review the present, as we stand here waist-deep in mock drafts.
The two quarterbacks seem so close. The lowly Indianapolis Colts must choose.
What will happen tonight in New York’s Radio City Music Hall, everyone knows. Andrew Luck will hold up his new Colts blue as No. 1, then Robert Griffin III will hold his new Washington Redskins burgundy as No. 2. Some say it should be the other way around, but no matter. The analysts relentlessly assure us that one is Can’t Miss, and the other is Sure Thing.
But what happens after tonight, nobody knows for sure. Nobody.
And we have the deja vu to prove it. Travel back with us in time. The date is set for April 18, 1998. Close your eyes and . . .
The two quarterbacks seem so close. The lowly Indianapolis Colts must choose.
What will happen when the draft begins in Madison Square Garden, everyone seems to know. Peyton Manning will hold up his new Colts dark blue as No. 1, then Ryan Leaf his new San Diego Chargers light blue as No. 2. Some say it should be the other way around, but no matter. The analysts relentlessly assure us that one is Can’t Miss and the other is Sure Thing.
“The pick is validated 10 years from now,” Manning says.
“I’m looking forward to a 15-year career, a couple of trips to the Super Bowl and a parade through downtown San Diego,” Leaf says.
They are nearly identical in age, Manning the older by 52 days. The two young men share the stage, and by popular acclaim, will share brilliant futures. Time for us to return home. Close your eyes and . . .
We’re back. And now we know how the two men parted that night, on paths headed in very different directions, to this very moment.
Manning is rebooting a Hall of Fame career in Denver, preparing for his first start with the Broncos.
Leaf is in jail in Montana, preparing for his court date next month on charges of burglary and drug possession.
Manning has started 208 regular season games and won 141 of them, with 399 touchdown passes.
Leaf started 21 games, lost 17 of them, with 14 touchdown passes.
In the 2003 season, Manning won his first playoff game.
In 2003, Leaf was out of football, a career imploded from behaviour off the field and performance on it.
In 2010, Manning played his second Super Bowl.
In 2010, Leaf — the man who on draft night envisioned a couple of Super Bowl trips — pleaded guilty to charges of obtaining a controlled substance by fraud, and was put on probation.
In the spring of 2012, Manning became the hottest free agent in NFL history.
In the spring of 2012, Leaf was arrested twice within four days.
The man who made the choice for the Colts that night was Bill Polian, so he is as qualified as any to look back 14 years.
He mentioned how Manning’s preparation habits and intelligence were “beacons in the night . . . Obviously no one is clairvoyant and no one could have predicted what he’s done. There was no question he was the right pick.
“There were issues with Ryan on the maturity side that unfortunately manifested themselves later on. I’m sorry it didn’t work out for him. He’s a good guy, but he wasn’t ready for the pressure that he was put under.”
Nobody said that on draft night. Maybe nobody knew it. It is the parable of 1998, suitable to any year, including this one. When everyone sounds so certain tonight, just remember that nobody is.