voice on national issues
mediately ahead.
“We’re actually entering into a very difficult time for the federation,” Gibbins said. “I don’t think it’s part of the public discussion right now, but Canada was fortunate over the last 50 or 60 years that the biggest province in Canada by population was also the wealthiest province so, year in and year out, Ontario had higher incomes and higher levels of wealth than the other provinces.
“You can make a lot of things work if the biggest guy is also the wealthiest guy . . . now that strength is waning and probably waning in a permanent manner.”
The current oilsands pipeline debates — in particular Enbridge Inc.’ s Northern Gateway line from Alberta to the B.C. coast — are proving to be a hugely divisive issue not simply between the people in Western and Eastern Canada but provinces within the West.
“People in B.C. are saying, ‘We are being asked to take on all the risk and all the benefits all go to Alberta.’ So they’re saying, ‘Even if the risks are small, they’re all ours. and the money is all going to Alberta,’ ” Gibbins said. “That’s a tough argument to break.”
In fact, it’s the type of issue that leads to Gibbins’ sense that the future of Canada will require governments to focus far more on economic growth than the social policy agenda that dominated throughout the second half of the 20th century. The job will be made more difficult because Canada’s traditional trading partner — the United States, with the language, legal system and business culture — is facing major long-term economic challenges.
He cites the remarkable rise of Asia in recent decades as an energyhungry manufacturing powerhouse as typical of the changing global political dynamic and what it means to Canada. As Gibbins notes, the rise of Asia is an opportunity in Western Canada but “a “very real threat” to Ontario and Quebec.
The challenge for an evolving Canada going forward is obvious, he said. “How does the West, and particularly Alberta, convince Canadians what is happening is in their best interests? How do we do that in ways that don’t create unmanageable tensions with the federation?”
With these big questions to be resolved, don’t expect Gibbins to let something like retirement quiet his voice on Canadian issues.