Morsi concessions may be enough
With fighter jets swooping over Tahrir Square, the imposition of martial law being threatened and army engineers busily erecting three-metre-high concrete barriers around the presidential palace Sunday, the struggle for Egypt has entered another phase.
President Mohammed Morsi rescinded the part of a special decree early Sunday that had allowed him to override the judiciary and had given him close to absolute power. At the same time, he insisted a referendum on a draft constitution that would enhance Islam’s role in public life would still take place Saturday.
Concluding from this that Morsi continues to press for the Islamization of the government, the National Salvation Front – which is comprised of eight leftwing, liberal and Christian parties – called Sunday for massive demonstrations again Tuesday and urged its supporters to boycott the constitutional referendum.
But Morsi’s partial climb down may already be paying dividends. Where tens of thousands of secularists marched last weekend and mid-week, only a few hundred protesters turned out Saturday night and Sunday.
Whether Morsi’s constitutional gambit passes or fails (and it will likely pass because it has strong support outside Cairo) what will remain is a country where distrust is more deeply embedded than ever. For example, those who support rival visions for Egypt are now so far apart that their accounts of last Wednesday’s riots, which left as many as six dead and hundreds injured, are so different it is as if they are describing totally different events.
Moreover, the rivals continue to accuse each other of trying to gain support by offering bribes in a country of 82 million that is so poor there is little money available to throw at voters. Each side shouts that the other is trying to hijack democracy, when the truth is that neither side has any idea about what responsibilities and behaviour is expected in democratic societies. Morsi’s highstakes strategy to get the constitution passed with little scrutiny has further polarized a country that has been badly split since Hosni Mubarak was overthrown nearly two years ago in a revolution during which Islamists and secularists were briefly united and claimed that they wanted democ- racy. The secularists argue the proposed constitution would give Islamic scholars a say in judicial matters and almost totally ignore the rights of women and minorities.
Whether Morsi can stay on top may hinge in part on whether the military will rescue him if secularists try to seize power by force.
Until Saturday, the officer corps had said it intended to stay out of post-revolution politics. That changed when television programming was interrupted to announce the military would stop protests if they threat- ened public order.
Nevertheless, the military remains philosophically opposed to almost everything the Brotherhood and their ultra-conservative Salafi allies stand for and kept thousands of Islamists in jail during decades of military dictatorship. Any deal Morsi has struck with the military comes with potential perils. If the relationship sours, the generals control almost all the guns and all the heavy weapons, are major players in the economy and for all their flaws, remain the only unifying institution in the country. Still, by annulling the decree that gave him more power, Morsi may have bought himself time.
By backtracking, the president may also convince some of the less committed secular protesters that after two years of non-stop demonstrations, they are unlikely to win more concessions.
Something else to be factored in is that Morsi is being pulled in more than one direction. Many in the Brotherhood and almost every Salafi want Islam to have a much bigger role in Egypt The military will only let him go so far down this road.
The Brotherhood have declared that holding the referendum will prove that democracy is working in Egypt. The opposition has countered that a constitution is far too important a document for a genuine democracy to not have a thorough public debate and safeguards written in that protect minorities.
The West and western-minded Cairenes will not like the result much, but the Brotherhood’s version of democracy is the heavy favourite to win this round.