NDP riding high but Liberals a threat: poll
Support for the NDP has remained strong since Tom Mulcair took the helm last spring, but while four in 10 Canadians think the longtime third party is at last ready to govern, its fate may ultimately rest on that of the Liberal Party, according to a series of new polls.
The Ipsos Reid survey, conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global TV, reveals that 45 per cent of Canadians agree the official Opposition has earned the right to govern. About the same number, 44 per cent, approve of the job Mulcair has done so far.
In fact, Mulcair won the same approval rating as Prime Minister Stephen Harper, suggesting the two leaders are equally popular among their base of supporters.
Pollster Darrell Bricker said there’s good reason for the NDP to be optimistic, but cautions much can change depending on the result of the ongoing Liberal leadership race which culminates with a vote in April.
“People are coalescing around the NDP as a logical opposition to the federal Tories,” he said, adding “that dynamic may change” if the Liberals “get a bounce out of the leadership contest,” — something most likely to happen if the apparent front-runner, Justin Trudeau, wins.
To defeat the Conservatives, Bricker said either the NDP or the Liberals must rise to the top or the parties must consider a merger or coalition of some sort.
Mulcair, however, has downplayed the potential impact a Trudeau-led Liberal party can have on his chances of forming government in 2015. He’s rejected the idea of a merger and is instead focused on building the NDP brand and convincing Canadians that he can govern and manage the economy.
According to the Ipsos Reid survey, his message may be starting to resonate.
Canadians are pretty well evenly split when it comes to sharing the NDP’s values, with 51 per cent saying they do and 49 per cent saying they don’t.
That said, more Canadians seem to agree with the NDP’s take on issues than is the case for the Harper Conservatives.
Quebecers were most supportive of an NDP government with 56 per cent saying the party is ready. Just a quarter of those in Alberta agreed the NDP is ready to form government.
Bricker said the distribution of support could be a problem for the NDP as a plan to boost the number of seats in Alberta, B.C. and Ontario is poised to benefit the right more than the centre-left.
The survey of 1,021 Canadians was conducted online between Dec. 7 and 12, 2012. It is considered accurate to plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.