Alberta’s population growth brakes, but continues to lead nation

People thinking of moving here see collapse in oil leading to fewer jobs

As oil prices started plummeting and word of job losses spread, last fall saw Alberta’s population growth slow down, recording the province’s lowest fourth- quarter gain since 2010.

And with more energy industry layoffs announced this week and spring breakup signalling low rig activity, local economists predict the population growth slowdown is sure to continue.

According to the province’s quarterly population report, Alberta’s population hit an estimated 4,160,044 early this year, an increase of 14,052 over the previous three months. The province’s quarterly growth rate for October to December 2014 was 0.34 per cent, well below the previous year’s 0.51 per cent rate from October to December 2013.

But even the lower rate is still about 4.5 times the national rate of 0.08 per cent.

“The number of people coming into our province from other provinces, and from other countries, is specifically tied to our economic prospects,” said Ron Kneebone, director of economics at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy. “So this is no surprise, with what we’ve seen with oil and job losses. People know there just aren’t as many jobs here.

“And moving ahead we’ll see more signs of fewer people coming here from other places. Employment prospects are falling.”

Adam Legge, president of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce, says the population growth slowdown is “an exact reflection” of the economic slowdown in the energy industry.

“People from all around the country are seeing employment opportunities here aren’t that good, and with all the problems with oil storage in the U. S. and spring breakup upon us, things aren’t looking that positive in terms of the future either.”

But Legge added the economic and population growth slowdowns may have a silver lining in that the province may be able to catch up on much- needed infrastructure like schools and health facilities.