DECISION DAY

Wildrose picks new leader as Danielle Smith battles for Tory nod

Several hundred Progressive Conservatives vote Saturday on an emotional question for many Albertans: Does Danielle Smith sail on happily as a PC, or will she pay the price for the most shocking floor-crossing in provincial history?

The ex-Wildrose leader might seem a safe bet to capture the Tory nomination in Highwood, given her support from Premier Jim Prentice, and the fact that every other crosser who wanted a PC nod has won, despite some grumbling in their ridings. But Smith’s case is different. Some very knowledgeable PC strategists now believe she’ll lose. Others say it’s too close to call. Nobody seems confident about her chances. There’s a lot of cagey silence when Highwood party members talk to each other.

Smith has been the focus of anger not just locally, but across the province. She seemed cluelessly unaware that people would even be upset at what she did.

Yet the premier has done what he could to get her nominated. He owed her that much, at least, for relieving him of a large and effective opposition.

Early on in the Highwood race, several local PCs who had been keen to run against Smith nervously bowed out.

Prentice himself went to the riding to make an announcement with her.

Four Calgary cabinet ministers visited to campaign — Gordon Dirks (education), Kyle Fawcett (environment), Jonathan Denis ( justice), and Ric McIver ( labour). She has several major endorsements on her campaign website.

But now, the tide may have turned — if there ever was a genuine tide.

Smith faces an able and quite courageous opponent, Okotoks councillor Carrie Fischer.

At an advance poll Thursday, 157 people apparently voted, many of them Fischer backers. She has endorsements from several local politicians, including a mayor, as well as George Groeneveld, former Progressive Conservative MLA for the riding.

Among PCs, early campaigning enthusiasm for Smith has waned.

I’m told that people sent into the riding to help — including seasoned campaigners — have basically given up, citing a lack of campaign organization, shortage of local volunteers, and Smith’s own peculiar resistance to sound advice. Her campaign seems to be based in south Calgary as much as Highwood.

Most dramatically, several sources say advisers have told Prentice he shouldn’t risk further political capital by supporting her publicly.

His reaction to that isn’t known. When his office was asked Friday to react to the reports of trouble, and repeat the premier’s endorsement, an aide said it was a party matter.

Smith herself didn’t respond to a text message asking for comment.

Beneath it all, there’s seething resentment among some local people (not all) at the mass floor-crossing last Dec. 17. The campaign has been a tug of war between that emotion and the traditional Tory urge to stay onside with the government and the premier.

For the rest of the province, the question is whether PCs in even one riding will spit back a floorcrosser, or once again follow the government line.

This vote is really a matter of the party’s self-respect. Is there a backbone in there anywhere? Perhaps somebody should pay a price for what was done, and the last candidate available is Danielle Smith.

Having said that — and after hearing all the tales of campaign woes — I still have no idea how this vote will turn out. As always, the ways of the old party are too deep and murky for confident predication.

There’s another contest Saturday, of course — the three-person vote for leadership of the surviving elements of Wildrose. And it comes the very day we learn whether the politician who shattered Wildrose will enjoy a long and happy PC career.

Smith has been the focus of anger not just locally, but across the province. She seemed cluelessly unaware that people would even be upset.