Two polls show tight three- way election race
But pollsters caution early anger may not play out at ballot box
An Alberta election that once looked like a Tory cakewalk is instead developing into a close threeway race — at least in the early going of the campaign, according to two new polls.
A survey conducted by Mainstreet Technologies shows the Wildrose in the lead with 31 per cent support among decided voters, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 27 per cent and the NDP at 26 per cent.
The Liberals sit at 12 per cent support, and the Alberta Party are at three per cent.
“It’s probably the most exciting election I can remember,” said Mainstreet’s Quito Maggi. “I can’t recall a three- way ( Alberta) race in my lifetime.”
The poll surveyed 3,270 Albertans using interactive voice response ( IVR) technology on April 7, the day Prentice called the election for May 5.
Maggi said the survey shows the PCs dropping three points from a week earlier, the Wildrose up a point and the NDP surging by eight points.
The New Democrats are dominating Edmonton at 40 per cent support, more than twice as much as any other party, while the PCs have only a two- point lead over Wildrose in Calgary.
Maggi said the poll shows the “residual anger” from Premier Jim Prentice’s tough budget, released at the end of March, which introduced a host of tax increases, froze spending and projects a record $ 5- billion deficit.
He said “there is certainly an anyone- but- PC mood and effect,” but acknowledged fortunes could change as the election continues.
“That anger against the incumbent government, whether that lasts once the campaign truly unfolds in the week ahead, these numbers could change. Votes are going all over the place,” said Maggi.
“It’s really too early to tell how it all plays out.”
The margin of the error in the Mainstreet poll is plus or minus 1.78 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Mainstreet poll isn’t the only survey showing discontent with the Tories fuelling a threeway contest.
A ThinkHQ Public Affairs survey of 1,835 Alberta voters was released Wednesday showing Wildrose in the lead with the support of 31 per cent of decided voters, followed by the NDP at 26 per cent, and the PCs at 25 per cent.
The Liberals come in at 12 per cent support, and the Alberta Party at five per cent in the poll. The survey was conducted through an online panel between April 2 and 6.
But Think HQ’s Mark Henry cautioned that voter anger with the PC government in the early days of the campaign won’t necessarily endanger the Tory dynasty on election day.
“Voters are in a pretty grumbly mood,” he said.
“A lot of them seem to want to take the Tories to the woodshed, but I don’t know necessarily they want to lead them to the gallows at this point. It’s really too early to get into that, to be honest.”
Both polls show that about a quarter of respondents are undecided.
Henry notes though that there has been a significant drop in support for the Tories, who had 40 per cent support when ThinkHQ polled in January.
Voters are in a pretty grumbly mood. A lot of them seem to want to take the Tories to the woodshed, but I don’t know necessarily they want to lead them to the gallows at this point.