Rachel Notley must have figured, if it worked for Stelmach, why wouldn’t it work for her?

Ted Morton,

In the 2008 provincial election, how did the previously unknown and inarticulate new PC premier, Ed Stelmach, rack up a crushing 72seat majority? Easy.

First, he promised Albertans a royalty review that would give them a “fair share” of energy revenues. Next, he made sweetheart deals with the public- sector unions. The biggest was a fiveyear contract with the Alberta Teachers’ Association that guaranteed annual salary increases equal to the average weekly wage index — much more than just inflation. Stelmach then had the Alberta government assume the ATA’s $ 2- billion unfunded pension liability. Finally, he cancelled health- care premiums.

Sound familiar? It should. The 2015 NDP campaign was basically a carbon copy of the PC’s 2008 campaign. Rachel Notley must have figured, if it worked for Stelmach, why wouldn’t it work for her?

I’ve been asked what advice I would give Notley’s energy minister, Marg McCuaig- Boyd. My answer was simple: Don’t make the same mistakes Stelmach and Alison Redford made. Don’t conduct a recklessly aggressive royalty review that will chase much- needed capital and jobs out of Alberta.

Second, don’t waste billions of taxpayers’ dollars trying to incent more upgrading/ refining of bitumen in Alberta. Accept the unpleasant fact that, under present conditions, it’s impossible to build an upgrader that will be profitable. All government subsidies do is shift the loss from the private sector to Alberta taxpayers.

The sad truth is, the last two PC leaders set the bar so low, it will be impossible for the PCs to be a credible alternative to the NDP in the next election.

What criticisms of Rachel Notley could a future PC leader credibly make?

That the she ran four consecutive deficits? That she used dishonest accounting systems to hide these deficits from the public? She raised taxes? Blew through $ 17 billion of savings in the sustainability fund? Paid off the public- sector unions? That she raised royalties so high, it made Alberta oil and gas uncompetitive?

I can hear Rachel Notley laughingly reply: “Look in the mirror!”

After the 2012 election, with the Tories winning a come- from- behind victory over the Wildrose, I predicted a war of attrition between the two right- of- centre parties that would split the conservative vote and open the door to a left- wing party.

The one positive that comes out of the decimation of the Tories is the opportunity to build a new, modern conservative party for Albertans. The federal Conservative party is the obvious model. It bridged the old Reform/ PC split after the Liberals had won three elections in a row.

But this means a merger of the PCs and Wildrose, and that won’t be easy. The wounds are raw. Personal animosities are high.

Wildrosers seem to think: “We won. The PCs are finished. The sensible ones can join with us.”

From the Tory perspective, the battlefield looks different. Most PCs are thinking: “We still won more votes than the Wildrose. They can’t win in the cities.”

The truth is, both the PC and Wildrose brands have fatal flaws. If they don’t reunite before 2019, a second Notley government is all but guaranteed.

How do you bridge that gulf? The most interesting proposal I’ve heard is a grassroots embargo on donations to either party until they work out their differences.

In politics, as in business, money talks. The two parties can’t continue to go their separate ways if there’s no gas in their tanks.