Federal Tories open up lead over Liberals and NDP
Nine out of 10 Canadians say it’s important the federal government deliver a balanced budget, even as a slumping economy puts the Conservative government’s balanced- budget promise at risk.
Even so, Prime Minister Stephen Harper is the leader still most trusted to manage the Canadian economy, holding a slight edge over NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, with Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau a distant third, says a Mainstreet Research telephone poll of 5,147 respondents across Canada, conducted exclusively for Postmedia Network.
The poll, using what’s known as interactive voice response, was conducted July 20- 21 using a mixture of land lines and cellphones.
The results bode well for Harper and the Conservatives. The government’s economic credentials have taken a hit recently — just weeks before an election campaign — following a Bank of Canada report that suggests Canada slipped into a technical recession in the first half of the year with two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.
As well, a report this week from the parliamentary budget officer said the federal government will run a $ 1- billion deficit in the 201516 fiscal year, which would see the Tories break their solemn promise to balance the books this year — something they maintain they will still do.
Canadian voters place a lot of importance on a balanced government ledger, according to the Mainstreet/ Postmedia poll.
Five in 10 people polled ( 49 per cent) said it is “very important” for the federal government to deliver a balanced budget, while 28 per cent said it is “moderately important” and 13 per cent called it “somewhat important.”
Only five per cent of respondents said having the federal government deliver a balanced budget is “not at all important.”
“The economy is fast becoming the top issue for this election,” said pollster Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet Research.
“The number one surprise was how many people thought it was important to maintain a balanced budget. That’s how strongly Canadians feel about the economic stewardship.”
Voters in the 18- to- 34 and 65+ age groups were the most likely to rate a balanced budget as “very important,” at 53 per cent and 55 per cent respectively.
Respondents in Saskatchewan and Manitoba were most likely to rate a balanced budget as very important ( 63 per cent); followed by Alberta and Ontario ( 52 per cent each). British Columbia had the lowest percentage of people who rated a balanced budget as very important ( 38 per cent).
Harper and the Conservatives have built a brand as strong economic managers, a view Canadians still hold, according to the poll, despite the string of bad economic news for the government.
Among decided voters, 38 per cent of respondents said Harper is the leader they most trust to manage the economy, followed by Mulcair at 31 per cent and Trudeau at 23 per cent.
Among all people polled ( including undecided voters), one in three Canadians ( 33 per cent) said Harper is the best manager of the economy, followed by Mulcair at 27 per cent and Trudeau at 19 per cent.
Voters’ trust in Mulcair handling the economy was a “pretty substantial number,” Maggi said, “which shows I guess that it is working, that ( New Democrats) are having some success with selling Tom Mulcair as someone who is a good manager of the economy.”
Harper’s economic leadership is most trusted in Alberta ( 51 per cent of respondents), Ontario ( 38 per cent) and Saskatchewan and Manitoba ( 36 per cent). However, Mulcair is the most trusted economic manager in British Columbia ( 43 per cent) and Quebec ( 38 per cent).
In Atlantic Canada, Trudeau is the most trusted leader to manage the economy, at 29 per cent.
The Mainstreet poll has a margin of error nationally of plus or minus 1.37 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The regional margins of error range from about 2.55 percentage points ( plus or minus) in Ontario to 4.8 percentage points in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, and the Atlantic Provinces.