IS ALBERTA STILL TRUE BLUE?
After a dominating NDP victory, it’s now uncharted territory for federal Tories
The federal election that is about to kick off will see Canada — Calgary and Alberta, especially — headed into “uncharted territory.”
After years of Conservative dominance in Alberta, the province appears likely to be much more competitive than usual in the Oct. 19 national vote, given the NDP’s surprise victory in the spring provincial election.
And the election call that observers expect to come this weekend will also set off an 11-week campaign, far longer than normal, which will allow for higher spending limits that will presumably benefit the deep-pocketed federal Conservative party.
Mount Royal University political analyst David Taras said it all adds up to a political dynamic never seen before.
“This is all new territory for voters, uncharted territory,” he said in an interview this week.
But Taras said the issue facing the federal Tories, who have been in power since 2006, is whether the government’s gamesmanship around the election — which, beyond the super-sized campaign, has included billions of dollars in funding announcements in the last week — will pay off or backfire.
“I think the question is whether Harper has been too smart by half,” he said in an interview this week.
“For many people, it may just be the final manipulation, that he’s gone too far and people will see it as too cynical. I think that’s the danger for the Tories.”
Taras said Harper’s Conservatives have to face the shadow of an economic downturn that has hit Alberta particularly hard with the plunge of oil prices since last fall.
It’s possible the economic doldrums — which include numbers Friday showing the fifth straight month the economy has contracted — might work to the Tories’ advantage, with Harper selling the need for stability, he said.
But the potential recession is just as likely to undercut the Conservative reputation as economic managers and fuel the appetite for change to either the NDP or Liberals, he noted.
In the 2011 federal election, the Conservatives won all but one seat in Alberta, with Edmonton NDP MP Linda Duncan the lone opposition winner.
This time around, the number of seats in the province will increase from 28 to 34, and the outcome is less certain.
Taras said the NDP’s provincial dominance in Edmonton — it swept the city in the May 5 election — means the capital city has become highly unpredictable for the Tories.
Calgary — where the Liberals haven’t elected an MP since 1968 and the NDP has never won a riding — remains “solid ground” for the Conservatives but the party could be vulnerable in a handful of seats, he said.
While the NDP is hoping to capitalize on its recent provincial and federal surge, it is the Liberals under Justin Trudeau who have had a number of high-profile candidates nominated and running in Calgary since last year.
“We’re quite confident almost 80 days out from the election we have a good team in place, everyone’s already been working hard, and there’s plenty of time to ramp things up,” said Michel Breau, the Liberals’ director of political operations in Alberta.
“There is a very strong desire for change among voters.”
Breau said the party enters the campaign with candidates nominated in 25 Alberta ridings, including all 10 Calgary seats.
The Greens have 19 candidates in place provincewide and party leader Elizabeth May has promised a full slate nationally.
Tom Mulcair’s NDP, meanwhile, has nine candidates across Alberta, with two nominated in Calgary. A spate of nominations are scheduled for the coming weeks.
NDP spokesman George Soule said Premier Rachel Notley’s election has “inspired” New Democrats and shows that voters can get real change if they vote for it.
“After 10 years, people are seeing Stephen Harper’s plan isn’t working. So they are looking for someone to replace Stephen Harper,” he said.
“People are feeling excited about the possibilities.”
But Jason Kenney, the Conservative political minister for southern Alberta who has overseen the allocation of more than $2 billion in federal funds to Calgary projects in the last week, said he’s not concerned by the party’s prospects in its traditional strongholds.
“Our government has delivered on all our commitments,” he said at an announcement this week.
“Fundamentally, I believe that our low-tax, fiscally conservative approach to government is in sync with the value of Calgarians.”
The Conservatives have candidates nominated in all but one Alberta riding at this point.
With the Tories traditional dominance in the province, visits by federal leaders during campaigns have been rare occasions.
Kenney, who has been a crosscountry campaigner himself during previous elections, said Harper’s responsibilities as a national leader will keep him mainly away from his hometown of Calgary.
Breau said Trudeau will “definitely” be making appearances in Calgary, while Soule said he couldn’t comment on Mulcair’s itinerary at this point.
Taras said one consequence of the extended campaign is that party leaders will have more time to spend in places — like Calgary — where they have traditionally been seldom seen during elections.
“In a 77-day campaign? They’ll be everywhere,” he said.
After 10 years, people are seeing Stephen Harper’s plan isn’t working. So they are looking for someone to replace Stephen Harper.