ELECTION, OIL PRICES BOTH TOUGH ON ALBERTA’S NDP
It’s not easy being Joe. NDP Finance Minister Joe Ceci has a career- killing job at the worst possible time.
While Ceci blankets Alberta, talking to dozens of groups about the fall provincial budget, the economic news has drifted from dangerous to downright dire.
Oil wallows below $ 45 US a barrel. Alberta’s unemployment rate now tops 6 per cent, highest in the West. Calgary unemployment has jumped to 6.6 per cent.
The Keystone XL oil pipeline, which U. S. President Barack Obama seems determined to keep on rejecting, appears to be beyond resurrection.
The other options to move Alberta oil — Northern Gateway, Kinder Morgan and Energy East — are tangled up in a hot federal election campaign where only one party, the Conservatives, calls flat- out for building them, but never manages to do it.
And the political temperature keeps rising.
Toronto NDP candidate Linda McQuaig touched off a national uproar with her comment that the “tarsands” might have to stay in the ground if climate targets are ever to be met.
Federal NDP Leader Tom Mulcair stopped far short of rejecting McQuaig’s view when he said he’s in favour of energy development with much stricter environmental controls, and with policies that force companies to “internalize” the cost of their pollution.
I’ve talked to Mulcair about some of this and still don’t know quite what he means. Does he approve oilsands development on principle, or not?
Maybe not, when you consider that imposing big new costs on the industry, especially when oil prices are so low, could effectively create the moratorium McQuaig wants.
The truth is that many Canadians, including more than a few Albertans, will agree with Mulcair’s star candidate in Toronto Centre.
The view is strongest among thousands of younger people in the big metro centres — Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal and, yes, Calgary and Edmonton — who could actually vault Mulcair to power.
All this adds up to a spectacularly ugly dilemma for Ceci and Premier Rachel Notley.
Politically, they’ve decided to stay out of the federal fight entirely, pleading the pressure of provincial affairs.
Ceci walked the standard line Monday when he repeated: “The premier has been quite clear that diversification or access to our energy is a key focus.
“Of course, it has to be done in a ( way) that doesn’t detract from the current environment we have in this province.”
Notley, of course, has told investors that the oilsands are wide open to foreign capital.
“We will maintain ( a) warm welcome for investors and uphold their right to earn fair returns,” she told a conference July 8.
“Alberta will continue to be a healthy place for private investment under our government.”
On that day, she sounded more like Conservative Leader Stephen Harper than Mulcair, her friend and fellow New Democrat.
But still, do Notley and Ceci flat- out reject the oilsands moratorium movement that could be gaining traction in their federal party?
It’s real, and it could kill one of Canada’s greatest industries. A clear stand is something Albertans have a right to hear from provincial leaders.
We all know what would happen next, though. Harper and crew would claim the provincial NDP backs them and rejects Mulcair. Notley would end up in Harper’s anti- Mulcair ads.
All this comes right at Alberta’s most vulnerable moment since the early 1980s. And Ceci’s job is surely the most demanding of all, as he tries to hold next year’s deficit under some kind of control while keeping NDP promises.
The finance post may be the biggest and most prestigious in government, but it almost always leads to a political dead end.
Finance ministers or treasurers of the Progressive Conservative era — Jim Dinning and Ted Morton — have tried and failed to become premier.
Lloyd Snelgrove ended up quitting his party’s caucus. Iris Evans, the only other treasurer to deal with oil prices this low in real terms ( in 2009) was shuffled back to a lesser job, and soon passed into retirement.
Now Joe Ceci’s on trial — and he’s just trying to figure out what happens next, like all the rest of us.