‘ THIS IS CHESS’
Putin’s strategy in Syria
Once again, Vladimir Putin is forcing Barack Obama to respond to bold moves on the geopolitical chess board.
And once again, as Russia pours forces and military hardware into a corner of Syria, the U. S. president must adjust.
In moves that echo its buildup in Crimea, Moscow is adding to its military presence in Syria, where it has shipped fighter jets, armoured personnel carriers and attack helicopters. As with the early days of Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, U. S. officials say they still don’t have an explanation that satisfies them.
U. S. Secretary of State John Kerry has held out the possibilities Russia is trying to counter ISIL or bolster its ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Russia’s move raises the stakes for the global gathering of world leaders at the United Nations Monday, where the Russian president and Obama will have their first formal face- to- face meeting in more than a year. The Russian leader wants the U. S. and its allies to agree on a co- ordinated campaign against ISIL, according to a person close to the Kremlin. If they won’t, Putin is prepared to launch air strikes unilaterally, they said.
While Moscow has interests in Syria, its motives could include an attempt to end Russia’s international isolation, redefine its relations with the Arab world or box the U. S. into a corner.
“This is chess, this is calculated” to make the U. S. and Europe take notice, said Matthew Rojansky, director of the Kennan Institute in Washington, a research centre that focuses on Russia. “This is, ‘ We’re putting a piece down on the board that our adversary has to react to.’ ”
There are signs the Obama administration may ease its aversion to a transitional role for Assad and is willing to work with Russia. Kerry has spoken three times about Syria with Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov and plans to meet him this weekend in New York at the UN General Assembly.
Leaders of the 28- nation European Union, which is grappling with the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria, are pushing the U. S. in Russia’s direction. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday Assad should be included in any solution to the civil war.
“Assad will be part of that, but also others like the United States and Russia as well,” Merkel said.
Putin’s move yields dividends for Russia beyond protecting its only Mediterranean naval base and supporting an ally.
The Russian leader can also score points by taking on Islamic militants, a challenge Russia faces in Chechen fighters, many of whom are believed to have joined the fight against Assad.