We have reached pollster gridlock

In this daily feature until Election Day, the National Post captures a telling moment in time from the 2015 campaign trail.

It was yet another of the many, many polls released for Canada’s 42nd election, but Thursday, this one for La Presse, showed the Conservatives in the lead.

The Tories had the support of 35.4 per cent, well ahead of the Liberals ( 26.3 per cent) and the New Democrats ( 24.5 per cent) in the survey of 2,343 Canadians at the start of the week.

Tuesday, of course, the Liberals were No. 1. Last week, the NDP were in the lead. On Sept. 17, three polls came out, each with a different party in the lead.

“We don’t really know what’s going on because this has never happened before,” said David Moscrop, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia.

What’s never happened before is a federal race in which the three main parties are neck and neck.

It’s a “tie,” a “stalemate” or a “knife fight in a telephone booth,” as pollster Nik Nanos said this month.

While pre- election Canada may have seen wild shifts in party support, once the writ was dropped in August, Canadians made up their minds.

And no amount of scandal or gaffes seems to make a difference. For every NDP candidate saying they don’t know what Auschwitz is, there’s a Conservative saying there’s an “agenda” to fill Europe with Muslims.

Where casual electionwatchers see a three- way tie, though, the Tories likely see possibility.

Conservative voters, as a rule, count more. The Tories are favoured by seniors, who show up to vote in record numbers. And they also do well among low- population rural ridings where ballots carry more weight. But Canada also has a giant well of apathetic people who might be drawn to the polls by a high- stakes election.

In the 2008 U. S. presidential election, for instance, Barack Obama’s decisive victory was delivered partly on a wave of young voters.

Or it could be decided by the “Christmas Eve shoppers” — voters who pick a candidate on the way to the polling station.

“There are going to be people who make up their minds on Election Day — that is a thing — it’s shocking for people who are partisans,” Moscrop said.

Tom Flanagan has run campaigns for the Alberta Wildrose and the federal Conservatives, and predicted an issue will crop up to make the difference in the next four weeks.

A minority government may still lie in Canada’s future, and it could take any form. Notably, while the Liberals and the NDP are dismissing a coalition with the Conservatives, the only thing they’ve said for sure is they won’t let “Mr. Harper” continue as prime minister.

So we could end up with an NDP- Liberal coalition, a Conservative minority with a new leader at the helm, or a surprise NDP or Conservative majority.