NDP seeks ways to stop erosion of Quebec support
Former New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton made good use of them to speak directly to Quebecers and it paid off big time.
Now it’s time for his successor, Tom Mulcair, to try to get a boost from a leaders’ debate and the power of television.
With the NDP slipping in the polls in Quebec and the party in need of a re- boot, Mulcair gets a big chance on Friday to chip away at support for Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and, more importantly, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, who seems to have momentum on his side.
That’s when the last televised debate of this long, long campaign takes place.
This time the debate, in French, is on TVA. To get an idea of the network’s reach, in the 2014 provincial election 1.4 million Quebecers watched the face- to- face debate between Liberal Leader Philippe Couillard and Parti Quebecois Leader Pauline Marois.
TVA is billing this as the “ultimate” debate of the 2015 campaign.
Mulcair gets a second chance to correct impressions Sunday when he makes an appearance on the hugely popular Radio- Canada talk show, Tout le monde en parle.
It’s that same show that helped Layton create the orange wave in the 2011 election, which had the NDP take 59 seats in the province.
As the four leaders prepare for Friday’s TVA debate, Mulcair in particular needs to find a way to shake what has become a serious ball and chain in his campaign, the niqab issue.
Mulcair’s defence of the niqab despite widespread opposition in Quebec has become a problem for the NDP with three of Mulcair’s own candidates expressing opposition to it being worn during citizenship ceremonies.
The campaign in Quebec is still mainly about one thing: who — Mulcair or Trudeau — has the best chance of ousting Harper. Fickle Quebec voters — notoriously fond of strategic voting — will be watching Mulcair’s next moves carefully.
It’s really a catch- 22 for the NDP.
Their national support went up thanks partly to strong Quebec numbers. Quebecers could see what was happening in the rest of the country and believed the NDP had the best chance of forming a government.
But the NDP has started to slip in Quebec, partly because of the niqab issue, which has resulted in lower national polling numbers, leading Quebec voters to pause and think again about which party has the best chance of beating Harper.
The numbers show the trend. An Abacus poll published this week shows support for the NDP in Quebec down 17 percentage points since the middle of September, which has brought down the NDP’s national numbers.
On Thursday, an Angus Reid poll confirmed the trend again. The poll shows the Conservatives have opened a seven- point lead over the Liberals and NDP in Canada. Conservative support is 34 per cent of decided voters. The NDP and Liberals each have 27 per cent.
Angus Reid now predicts a “white- knuckle,” finish to the campaign because while the Conservatives are edging forward, the NDP and Liberals are locked in second place.
So how does Mulcair regain the image as the best person to incarnate change? It’s not clear. But on the campaign trail Thursday, the NDP was trying to stop the erosion.
The party has launched a new attack ad that targets Trudeau. Mentioning that Trudeau supported the anti- terrorist Bill C- 51, the ad ends with the words, “Justin Trudeau — he just lost my vote.”