Canada’s teams struck by draft lottery fever
No. 1 prospect Matthews would give any franchise a big-time jolt
While no Canadian team qualified for the playoffs this year, a pretty good consolation prize awaits at Saturday’s NHL Draft Lottery: Auston Matthews.
“There’s a 70 per cent chance he’s going to Canada,” said Marc Crawford, who coached Matthews in Switzerland.
Matthews, who would have been a top-2 or 3 pick in last year’s draft, had 24 goals and 46 points for Zurich this past season and has already been named to Team USA for the world championships. The 6-foot-2 centre, said Crawford, is already “on par with Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel.”
He could change the fortunes of a franchise.
This year’s draft lottery is different because the first three picks could go to any nonplayoff team. But with five of the six worst teams coming from Canada, the odds are good one of them will win. Here’s a look at what that could mean:
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Odds of winning: 20 per cent Why they need to win: The Leafs, who had the league’s worst record, technically deserve the No. 1 pick — something they haven’t had since taking Wendel Clark in 1985. More than that, they need a No. 1 centre — something they haven’t had since Mats Sundin. Why they don’t: Even if they end up outside the top three, the team has shown an ability to draft and develop players. It’s a small sample size, but the effect head coach Mike Babcock had on young players like Zach Hyman, Nikita Soshnikov and Connor Brown means Toronto could still end up with a stud at No. 4. What makes most sense: First overall.
EDMONTON OILERS
Odds of winning: 13.5 per cent Why they need it: Because Edmonton winning the lottery would be both hilarious and sad. The Oilers don’t “need” Matthews, since they have Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl at centre. But they do need the No. 1 pick, so they can trade it to Arizona for a package of players, prospects and picks that should include a defenceman.
Why they don’t: The Oilers have picked first in four of the last six drafts and still finished with the second-worst record this season. Matthews would give them another offensive dynamo, but it’s about getting the right pieces. And right now, the team needs defencemen, goaltenders and depth players. What makes most sense: Fifth overall, where the Oilers can select defenceman Jakob Chychrun or Olli Juolevi.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Odds of winning: 11.5 per cent Why they need it: The Sedins are getting older, but the Canucks’ young players are not ready — or good enough — to take over. A total rebuild could be avoided if they get Matthews, who would allow them to stay competitive while building on the fly. Why they don’t: The Canucks had the third-worst record, but much of their struggles came from working young players into key roster spots. If Bo Horvat, Jared McCann and Jake Virtanen can take a step forward next season — and if Ryan Miller is as good as he was during the final three months — this could be a playoff team. What makes most sense: Seventh overall, where the team can select forward Alexander Nylander.
CALGARY FLAMES
Odds of winning: 8.5 per cent Why they need it: Sean Monahan and Sam Bennett are developing into top-two centres, while Johnny Gaudreau is one of the top scorers in the league. But in the big, bad Western Conference, a No. 1 centre is vital. Why they don’t: The Flames are in greater need of players like pending free agent goalies Frederik Andersen or James Reimer. They not only made the playoffs a year ago, but advanced to the second round — and the only reason that didn’t happen again was goaltending. What makes most sense: Fourth overall, where the Flames can select rugged power forward Matthew Tkachuk.
WINNIPEG JETS
Odds of winning: 7.5 per cent Why they need it: Because the Central Division is the hardest in hockey and having a No. 1 centre to match up against Jonathan Toews, Tyler Seguin and Ryan Johansen is a must. Right now, the Jets’ best option at that position is Mark Scheifele, who took a major step this season with 29 goals and 61 points, but he needs help. Why they don’t: From Jacob Trouba and Nikolaj Ehlers to AHL defenceman Josh Morrissey and Hobey Baker finalist Kyle Connor, the Jets have the deepest prospect pool in the NHL. A year ago, this was a playoff team and if not for spotty goaltending and off years from key players, they should have been in the postseason again. What makes most sense: Sixth overall, where the Jets can select forward Pierre-Luc Dubois.
MONTREAL CANADIENS
Odds of winning: 5 per cent Why they need it: The Canadiens have the league’s best goalie (Carey Price), a top defencemen (P.K. Subban) and a top-scoring winger (Max Pacioretty). Where they have a hole is down the middle. Alex Galchenyuk took a step forward with 30 goals this season, but Matthews would give them a one-two punch and make Montreal an instant Cup contender. Why they don’t: Michael McCarron does not possess Matthews’ skill level, but the 6-foot-6, 230-pound prospect (25th overall in 2013) is developing into a top-two centre. Montreal has four players ranked among the top 100 prospects by The Hockey News. What makes most sense: Second overall, where the Canadiens can select a high-scoring winger like Patrik Laine.
OTTAWA SENATORS
Odds of winning: 2.5 per cent Why they need to win: Erik Karlsson was the highest scorer on the Senators with 82 points — which is a remarkable achievement for a defenceman, but also speaks to the team’s offensive struggles. Imagine how many goals Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone or Bobby Ryan could score with Matthews in the middle. Why they don’t: Ottawa, which selected Karlsson 15th overall and found Hoffman and Stone in the fifth and sixth rounds, respectively, has done a great job drafting and developing without the aid of a top-10 pick. What makes most sense: Third overall, where the Senators can select two-way winger Jesse Puljujarvi.