The year that changed everything in Alberta
After ending 44 years of Tory rule a year ago, Rachel Notley’s NDP has steered, sometimes stumbled, into new territory for energy, environment, labour and debt. And they’re not done yet.
For both sides of Alberta’s political divide, May 5, 2015, was a jawdropping moment.
As the province’s 29th general election wound up and results began trickling in, it became apparent that the polls, this time, would be correct.
The NDP was about to sweep to victory, toppling 44 years of conservative rule.
Before night’s end, Progressive Conservative leader Jim Prentice would resign and Alberta would have a new captain at the helm — Rachel Notley, the province’s first NDP premier.
“NDP Crushes Tory Dynasty” read the next day’s headline. The NDP ended up with 54 seats, destroying the Progressive Conservatives who went into the race with a whopping 70 of the 87 seats in the house.
One year on, Premier Notley contends that she has stayed true to her campaign promises, even if some are taking longer to roll out than she had hoped.
There is one pledge the NDP government has no chance of keeping, though — balancing the budget by 2017.
ECONOMIC IMPACT: OIL’S NOT WELL
The NDP hardly took power at an economically rosy time.
In the year they’ve been in office, oil prices have continued a slide into oblivion, bottoming out in January at around $30 per barrel; even Wildrose Leader Brian Jean acknowledged last month that now isn’t “a great time to govern.”
Projections point to a plodding oil recovery, but the province’s finances remain on shaky ground for the foreseeable future and the government projects a $10.4 billion deficit by fiscal year end.
Premier Notley argues that when oil prices tanked, her government had two choices — continue providing health care, education and human services, as the NDP promised, or make the cuts being planned by Prentice when he called the election.
For Notley, a once in a multigenerational drop in oil prices and the resulting economic slowdown has, without question, been the biggest challenge of her government’s first year in power.
“We would have loved to have come into government and moved forward on a lot of the progressive policies that … we believe are long overdue, and that we ran on, but that’s not exactly what happened.” It’s frustrating, she says. “(But) it’s a darn good thing we’re the ones here managing it and not our opposition, because I think there’s a better way forward for Alberta, and I think we’re laying out that path.”
Budget Day saw the government come forward with a document that backflipped on its previous jobs plan and contained only $250 million to directly support job creators. Still, Finance Minister Joe Ceci argued that other measures the government was taking — building infrastructure, the small business tax cut — would create work and diversify Alberta’s economy.
What the NDP classed as positive — spending, rather than cutting — was roundly criticized by the opposition and earned Alberta two credit downgrades, leaving Jean shaking his head, asking, “Are you serious?”
To the Wildrose leader, the downgrade perfectly illustrates what he calls “disastrous decisions destroying our economy.”
“All of the wrong choices have been made over the last year of NDP rule,” he says.
“What finance minister has ever stood in any place and said, ‘Oh no, a financial downgrade won’t have any effect.’ Like, seriously. Who says that?”
When news of the first credit downgrade filtered down the day after the budget, Notley said it was an unavoidable consequence of plunging oil prices.
Ceci told a business breakfast in Calgary he was “going to fight” to get it back, and this week headed to Toronto and New York to trumpet the jobs plan to inter- national investors and credit rating agencies.
“The important things that Albertans tell me about are not so much about the bond rating; it’s more about what our quality of life in this province is,” he told the business breakfast.
Ceci is adamant his government went in the direction Albertans wanted, which was protecting and investing in the province.
QUESTIONS OF CONSULTATION
Along with maintaining services, the NDP’s 2015 election platform pledged to restore honest and open government.
Stakeholders and industry groups say it has followed through and is more accessible than the previous administration.
Joel French, executive director of left-leaning Public Interest Alberta (PIA), says consultation was so rare under the PCs that his group once set up camp in a minister’s office to force a meeting — a tactic he can’t see PIA repeating any time soon.
Even the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) says the new government is consulting widely.
CAPP is often viewed as a more natural bedfellow with the conservative side of the political spectrum than the NDP. President Tim McMillan refutes that — “We are staunchly non-partisan,” he maintains — but says the NDP’s approach over the past year has been to bring together panels and external expertise that provide advice back to the government.
On big files in which CAPP has been involved, McMillan thinks the group’s input was taken seriously, and he credits the government with working on more investment and supporting pipelines. Even when pushed about how his political ties have gone down with the NDP ( he came to the job from a cabinet position with the Saskatchewan Party), he has nothing negative to say.
When it comes to open government, though, the major opposition parties say the NDP hasn’t kept its promise.
PC Leader Ric McIver puts it bluntly: “I’ve heard from a lot of people, ‘ You guys were imperfect, but at least we could get you on the phone.’”
He says ranchers and farmers have told him that if they manage to get a hold of the agriculture minister, they feel he’s not listen- ing. McIver holds up Bill 6 — farm safety legislation that drew the ire of many rural Albertans — as a shining example.
The Wildrose leader agrees. Jean was expecting the NDP to focus on accountability, transparency, democracy and good governing, but he doesn’t think that’s happened. At all.
Jean also criticizes the NDP’s approach to committees and in the house; take, for example, the perceived pre-determination of a debate that had McIver refusing to sit down, and his resulting ejection from the chamber.
“The majority is taking advantage of the minority,” Jean says.
NEW KIDS: A GOVERNMENT WITH TRAINING WHEELS
If you want to look for rookie errors made by the NDP govern- ment, you don’t have to wade far into its tenure — just 16 days, in fact, when it invited people to Notley’s public swearing-in ceremony, while asking them to contribute money to the party.
The NDP quickly backtracked and apologized, but it didn’t look great and left many unimpressed with the shiny new government.
A few months later, in March, Alberta’s ethics commissioner Marguerite Trussler slapped the NDP and Notley on the wrist over two party fundraisers — one at the Art Gallery of Alberta, the other a private dinner in Toronto.
The premier admits her government has made mistakes over its first year — “we’ll probably still make some more,” she adds — but says it’s about learning.
“I think as long as we know that and embrace that, we will learn and get better,” she says. “Overall, I’m remarkably proud of my caucus and my cabinet.
“There have been some incredibly talented people that have really shown their stuff, and shown a level of maturity that people wouldn’t necessarily have anticipated.”
Calgary pollster Janet Brown says it’s not just the government who are still trying to figure it out — Albertans in general are still trying to understand what it means to be under an NDP government.
“It’s too extreme to call it buyer’s remorse, but the Albertans who voted NDP didn’t all necessarily want a majority NDP government,” Brown says.
Jean and McIver look at it that way too. Both think the 2015 election result was more about voting the Progressive Conservatives out, rather than voting the NDP in, and have come to terms with what that might mean for their own parties down the road.
LOOKING AHEAD: WINNING THE NEXT ONE
Sometime in the next three years, Albertans will head to the polls once more.
Capturing Calgary, Ceci’s home city, will be critical for the NDP to retain power — something the finance minister readily admits.
Unlike the traditional orange stronghold of Edmonton, historically there isn’t an awful lot of support for his party here, but he’s adamant that’s changing. He says Calgary’s 15 NDP MLAs are young, diverse and engaged; connected to the business community; and forming more connections with the energy sector each day.
It doesn’t hurt that the government has been throwing cash at projects here, like the Calgary Cancer Centre and the completion of the Ring Road.
Notley would be a rare politician indeed if the election wasn’t playing at the back of her mind, but she says that’s not what she’s focusing on.
“We had a government that had been devoid of important new ideas for quite some time,” she says.
“There is work to be done, particularly if you want to promote the values that we believe strongly in … and making sometimes difficult decisions with an understanding that long-term planning is better in the public interest overall.”
Jean thinks that’s nonsense, and contends that NDP policy is driving companies — and their investments — “anywhere else in the world.”
When asked what the next few years will bring for the Wildrose, he says it’s about “winning the hearts and minds of Albertans,” and making further inroads into rural Alberta where he says his party is so far ahead that nobody will catch them.
The PCs, meanwhile, have licked their wounds. McIver says his party has turned a corner, and re-examined who they are and their values.
“Being in opposition has been a tremendous growing experience,” he says.
“A lot of people turned their back on us with good reason, and I think that maybe — maybe — with hard work they will give us another chance.”
I think there’s a better way forward for Alberta, and I think we’re laying out that path.