Notley popularity in middle of pack

Poll suggests premier’s performance stable but approval way down from ’15

Premier Rachel Notley has the approval of less than one-third of Albertans in a new poll — but that still makes her the fifth most popular premier in Canada.

The most recent survey of provincial premiers by the Angus Reid Institute shows 31 per cent of Albertans approving of Notley’s performance in office, with 62 per cent disapproving and seven per cent unsure.

The pollster characterized Notley’s performance as stable, noting her position is essentially unchanged from the 32 per cent support she had in the spring.

But with Alberta’s economy continuing to stagnate, Notley has seen a precipitous drop in support since her election last year.

In June 2015, a month after the NDP came to power, Notley enjoyed the support of 53 per cent of voters, making her one of the most popular premiers in the country.

“There are a couple of factors at play. First of all, there’s always the end of the honeymoon. And when it ends, oh, my God does it end,” said Shachi Kurl of the Angus Reid Institute, adding that the government is also trying to implement an ambitious agenda.

“And all of this is happening against a backdrop of a level of gloom and a level of anxiety about the economy and prospects for Albertans’ futures that we haven’t seen in a long time.”

Notley’s current approval rating puts her in the middle of the pack among the nine premiers in the poll. (Prince Edward Island is excluded because of a small sample size.)

Perennially popular Brad Wall retains the highest approval rating in the country, at 57 per cent, but the Saskatchewan premier has dropped nine points after a series of controversies in his province this year.

Wall is followed by Manitoba’s Brian Pallister (53 per cent approval), Nova Scotia’s Stephen McNeil (38 per cent) and British Columbia’s Christy Clark (34 per cent), all of whom come in ahead of Notley.

Trailing the Alberta premier is Quebec’s Philippe Couillard (28 per cent), New Brunswick’s Brian Gallant (24 per cent), Newfoundland and Labrador’s Dwight Ball

There are a couple of factors at play. First of all, there’s always the end of the honeymoon. And when it ends, oh, my God does it end.

(21 per cent) and Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne (20 per cent).

With Alberta about two-and-ahalf years away from its next provincial election, Kurl cautioned against viewing the poll as predictive of the 2019 vote.

“There’s a big difference between premier job approval ... and vote intention. Two completely separate things,” she said.

“It can be indicative, it can show a trend, but it’s not the same question.”

The poll is based on an online survey of a representative sample of Angus Reid Forum panellists between Sept. 11 and 15.

It saw 483 Albertans surveyed for the province’s results.