Almost 2 of 3 Albertans oppose carbon tax: poll
A new poll shows deep disapproval for Alberta’s incoming carbon tax, but the NDP government is hopeful residents will ultimately see the merits of the levy.
The ThinkHQ Public Affairs survey shows 63 per cent disapproval of the broad-based carbon tax, which comes into effect Jan. 1, compared to 32 per cent approval.
On the Notley government’s climate change strategy, which beyond the carbon tax includes a cap on oilsands emissions and an accelerated phase-out of coal power, 53 per cent of respondents disapproved while 37 per cent approved.
That’s a drop from a similar poll in December, which saw Albertans split on the climate plan, with 44 per cent approval and 44 per cent disapproval.
Albertans were not asked about the carbon tax in the December poll.
“As far as the carbon levy, obviously, our hope is that Albertans will see and recognize the value of this,” NDP Economic Development Minister Deron Bilous responded Thursday.
The climate strategy is aimed at both lowering the province’s Canada-leading greenhouse gas emissions and helping to win support for new oilsands pipelines in the rest of the country by taking environmental action.
Bilous noted that the federal Liberal government has indicated it will bring in some sort of carbon pricing mechanism that will require provinces to set a minimum price in any case, meaning the NDP is ahead of the game with “a madein-Alberta solution.”
He also touted the NDP’s pledge to “reinvest” all the money brought in from the tax, an estimated $9.6 billion over five years. A portion will be used for rebates that will go to two-thirds of Alberta households, while the remainder will be used for measures such as public transit and renewable energy projects.
The tax — based on the equivalent of $20 per tonne of CO2 emissions in 2017, increasing to $30 in 2018 — is projected by the government to cost the average family $433 in direct and indirect costs in the first year.
Earlier this week, Premier Rachel Notley said she believes Albertans are behind the government on its climate plan and other controversial measures, such as the sharply increased minimum wage, even as the province struggles through its second year of recession thanks to slumping oil prices.
Marc Henry of ThinkHQ said that while Albertans want to see greenhouse gas emissions lowered, they are concerned about the impact of the carbon tax on their pocketbooks and its effect on a weak economy.
He said the poll is a political warning to the NDP.
“They need to be very conscious Alberta is in a very fragile state economically,” he said. “Economics, jobs, provincial budgets and so on, those issues have risen in terms of the public agenda.
“You certainly don’t want to be put in a position where three years hence you get blamed for somehow delaying a bounce back in the economy.”
The carbon tax has faced fierce political opposition. The Wildrose and Progressive Conservative leadership candidate Jason Kenney have vowed to scrap it, while other candidates in the Tory leadership race have called for major tax cuts to offset its impact.
Wildrose MLA Leela Aheer said Thursday the poll is a “dose of reality” for the Notley government.
“It reflects, certainly, what we’ve heard but I actually, with all my heart, based on my constituency and the people I talk to, thought (opposition to the tax) would be higher,” she said in an interview.
While Bilous cited the likelihood of a federal carbon tax, Aheer said no one knows for sure what Ottawa will do. If the Trudeau government brings in a carbon price, Alberta should be fighting it, she added.
The NDP government says its suite of actions will lower projected emissions growth by 50 megatonnes by 2030, stabilizing Alberta’s greenhouse gas production at around current levels.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 14 to 19, surveyed 1,331 representative Albertans on the Voice of Alberta and Angus Reid Forum online panel. Online polls do not have a margin of error because the sample is not random but a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points at a 95 per cent confidence interval.
They need to be very conscious Alberta is in a very fragile state economically. Economics, jobs, provincial budgets and so on, those issues have risen in terms of the public agenda.