HERE’S HOW THE U.S. ELECTION RESULTS MAY AFFECT ALBERTA
The election of Donald Trump as the next U.S. president could have far-reaching ramifications north of the 49th parallel. Experts weigh in with Michele Jarvie on what Trump’s possible policies could mean for Alberta.
ENERGY
Analysts and industry groups say Trump’s election bodes well for efforts to improve access of Alberta crude to American markets, potentially reducing the discount local producers accept for their oil. Trump said during the campaign he would approve Keystone XL, the pipeline that would deliver more than 800,000 barrels of oil per day from western Canadian producers to refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Still, there are fears that clashing climate change policies on either side of the border may hurt Alberta’s oil and gas industry. Trump is not expected to introduce a price on carbon or proceed with methane emission reductions, while the Alberta and Canadian governments have adopted those very policies. Industry backers fear that higher costs and tougher regulations in Canada will place domestic producers at a disadvantage over their American competitors.
TRADE
Trump has publicly declared the North American Free Trade Agreement “a disaster” and he opposes the Trans-Pacific Partnership. If protectionist policies are implemented, it could throw Alberta’s cross-border trade into disarray. “The TPP issue is obviously important to Alberta, because one of the things we got with TPP is access to new markets for beef, pork and wheat,” said Chris Kukucha, political scientist at the University of Lethbridge. “That’s going to hurt. “What Canada will now have to do is individually negotiate a bilateral (agreement) with markets like Korea or Japan.” Greg Anderson, a political scientist at the University of Alberta, agreed the TPP is dead. “This was a big Obama thing but it’s off the table now. And that’s bad news.” Anderson said NAFTA, on the other hand, will be much harder to withdraw from. “You don’t just unwind it with a bunch of trade barriers. “It tends to be a bit of a political piñata, a catch-all for all things bad. And I’m not sure what he feels is bad with it. But (his stance) does signal a kind of protectionism that is bad.” There’s concern the U.S. could enact punitive tariffs on Canadian exports to protect American jobs. The U.S. is by far Alberta’s largest trading partner, with annual merchandising exports totalling $77.5 billion over the past five years, according to the Alberta government.
TRAVEL/IMMIGRATION
Trump has said he would ban Muslims, send Syrian refugees back and build a wall to keep out illegal Mexicans. If Trump fears Canada’s influx of Syrian refugees is a threat, he may increase border security, making it more difficult for travellers. Consider Albertans’ penchant for travel to the south — Calgary has direct flights to more than 45 U.S. cities — any restrictions will affect large numbers of travellers. Anderson said the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has already made it harder to get through with more checks and ways to watch travellers. He believes it will get even more stringent under Trump and worries about Canadians, including snowbird Albertans, who overstay their visas. “I don’t have a lot of faith the DHS will exercise a lot of discretion. I think it will have a real chill on travel.”
CLIMATE CHANGE
Trump has promised to back out of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which would effectively kill the deal. He’s also said he would scrap President Barack Obama’s greenhouse gas policies. That threatens the global movement to fight climate change of which Canada and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley are leading the way. “Climate change is off the table,” said Anderson. “He’s committed to not implementing the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. That lets the air out of that political will. All the stuff Alberta has been doing is about social licence — to be able to say we’re doing our best — but, now, where’s the impetus for that?”
POLITICS
Negative politics waged in the U.S. could easily spill over to Alberta, says MRU political scientist Lori Williams, who drew parallels between the populist styles of Trump and Ralph Klein. “I think a lot of people were hoping that kind of politics — divisive, angry, provocative — would not be rewarded and the taking of higher ground, providing a better example, the filtering of some of the extremes ... would have won the day. But now that it’s been successful ... there are going to be some people who use those techniques.” Williams said we’ve already seen some of that emerge in the provincial Tory leadership race, with the two female candidates — Sandra Jansen and Donna Kennedy-Glans — pulling out on Nov. 8, citing harassment and polarizing politics that don’t leave room for centrist views. “Particularly vicious attacks on women, but attacks on everyone is certainly not taking the high road, certainly not blunting the edges of division. It’s becoming more divisive and polarizing.”